Ajax vs PSV Prediction & Tips | Eredivisie | FootballTips.app

Ajax

Ajax

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HT: 1 - 2
Saturday 5 September
PSV

PSV

Away
AjaxTimelinePSV
1st Half
Pepi R. (van Bommel R.)
sports_soccer
5'
Sano K.
16'
Arokodare T.
sports_soccer
23'
Fernandez N.
37'
Geertruida L. ()
sports_soccer
45+1'
2nd Half
Wanner P.Out: Fernandez N.
sync_alt
46'
Marcos LeonardoOut: Klaassen D.
sync_alt
54'
Amrabat S.Out: Gloukh O.
sync_alt
54'
Dolberg K.Out: Arokodare T.
sync_alt
61'
Tsygankov V.Out: Berghuis S.
sync_alt
61'
Mijnans S.Out: Pepi R.
sync_alt
63'
Bajraktarevic E.Out: Perisic I.
sync_alt
63'
Kostic F.Out: Mauro Junior
sync_alt
73'
Ouazane A.Out: Mokio J.
sync_alt
73'
Flamingo R.Out: Geertruida L.
sync_alt
73'
Kostic F.
74'
Klaassen D.
80'
van Bommel R.
81'
Baas Y.
81'
Perisic I.
81'
Geertruida L.
84'
Kehrer T.Out: Bouwman A.
sync_alt
84'
Gasiorowski Y.Out: Obispo A.
sync_alt
88'
Bajraktarevic E. (Mijnans S.)
sports_soccer
90+2'
Gaaei A.
90+6'

Top stats

1.98Expected goals (xG)2.55
53%Ball possession47%
19Total shots13
6Shots on target5
4Big chances3
1Corner kicks1
83% (427/513)Passes86% (384/446)
2Yellow cards4

Shots

1.98Expected goals (xG)2.55
1.32xG on target (xGOT)2.43
19Total shots13
6Shots on target5
7Shots off target6
6Blocked shots2
12Shots inside the box11
7Shots outside the box2
0Hit the woodwork0
0Headed goals1

Attack

4Big chances3
1Corner kicks1
22Touches in opposition box31
1Accurate through passes0
1Offsides1
13Free kicks6

Passes

83% (427/513)Passes86% (384/446)
56% (32/57)Long passes52% (28/54)
76% (92/121)Passes in final third73% (73/100)
36% (4/11)Crosses23% (3/13)
0.93Expected assists (xA)1.93
23Throw ins16

Defense

6Fouls13
72% (18/25)Tackles57% (16/28)
55Duels won56
9Clearances12
15Interceptions14
0Errors leading to shot0
0Errors leading to goal0

Goalkeeping

2Goalkeeper saves5
2.43xGOT faced1.32
-0.57Goals prevented0.32
6Goal kicks7
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
12.53
X4.16
22.34

Recommended Bet

Away Win
Odds: 2.34Stake: High (9/10)
91
Opp. Value

Key Factors

⚠️ Using limited statistical data
Player Ratings Lineups: Home 7.0 vs Away 7.2
Model Consensus: 2-2 (Draw)
More Goals: Away 14 vs 7

donut_small Win Probabilities

27%
17%
57%
Ajax
Draw
PSV
payments

Value Comparison

OutcomeMarket OddsTrue Odds (AI)Value
Home Win2.533.77-32.9%
Draw4.165.95-30.1%
Away Win2.341.76+32.6%

Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.

Match Preview

Ajax and PSV Eindhoven meet at the Johan Cruijff ArenA in the standout fixture of matchday five, with both sides unbeaten and already establishing themselves near the top of the Eredivisie table. Ajax sit fourth with seven points from three matches, while defending champions PSV are second on 10 points after four games.

Ajax arrive after an emphatic 4-0 victory away to Telstar, although the final scoreline disguised a more difficult opening hour. Míchel’s side struggled initially against a compact defensive block before Steven Berghuis’ corner created the breakthrough for Davy Klaassen, after which Ajax took control and scored three further second-half goals through Berghuis, Tolu Arokodare and substitute Marcos Leonardo.

Berghuis was the decisive figure, contributing a goal and two assists as Ajax punished Telstar once the hosts began leaving more space. Marc-André ter Stegen also made a crucial intervention shortly after half-time to preserve the lead, and Ajax have now kept two clean sheets in three league matches while scoring eight goals.

PSV arrive in even more imposing attacking form after thrashing Utrecht 6-1 away at Stadion Galgenwaard. Artem Stepanov gave the hosts an early lead, but Ruben van Bommel equalised five minutes later before Guus Til completed the turnaround just before half-time. Mauro Júnior, Sven Mijnans, Til again and Sergiño Dest then scored during a devastating final quarter of an hour.

The champions’ numbers are formidable. PSV have scored 15 goals in four league matches, averaging 3.75 per game, with Til, Ricardo Pepi, Ivan Perišić, Van Bommel and Dest all already on two goals. Their high press and 90% passing accuracy suffocated Utrecht, who managed only one shot during the entire match despite scoring from it.

Recent meetings have nevertheless favoured Ajax, who are unbeaten in their last five clashes with PSV, winning two and drawing three. With Ajax producing 17 goals across their last five matches and PSV 15, both attacks arrive in exceptional form, but the contrast between Ajax’s two clean sheets and PSV’s five-match wait for one suggests defensive execution could ultimately decide a fixture historically separated by very little.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Ajax

Starting 11
-Marc ter Stegen
GK7.10
-Caio Henrique
DL7.08
-Youri Baas
DC6.73
-Aaron Bouwman
DC7.18
-Anton Gaaei
DR6.88
-Julian Brandt
MC6.73
-Jorthy Mokio
MC6.71
-Davy Klaassen
MC7.12
-Oscar Gloukh
FWL7.09
-Tolu Arokodare
FW7.19
-Steven Berghuis
FWR7.40

PSV

Starting 11
-Matej Kovár
GK6.47
-Mauro Júnior
DL7.24
-Armando Obispo
DC6.78
-Ryan Flamingo
DC6.88
-Sergiño Dest
DR7.91
-Guus Til
MC7.15
-Kodai Sano
MC6.96
-Noah Fernandez
MC7.33
-Ruben van Bommel
FWL7.52
-Ricardo Pepi
FW6.89
-Ivan Perisic
FWR7.82
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 22 / 34 matches
AjaxvsPSV
2.50Goals / Match2.97
0.82Conceded / Match1.32
12Clean Sheets7

radarTeam Profile

Ajax
PSV
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
38Attack99
shield
50Defense46
swap_horiz
24Possession79
gps_fixed
50Efficiency90
auto_fix_high
0Creativity77
gavel
81Discipline61

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

55Goals Scored101
18Goals Conceded45
12Clean Sheets7
4Penalty Goals4

Statistical Comparison

AjaxMetricPSV
7
Goals
14
6
Assists
9
6.9
Average Ratings
6.8
26.4
Average Age
25.3
183.1
Average Height (cm)
181.9
1.5
Shots pg
1.8
47%
Aerial Duel Success
58%
0.9
Dribbles pg
0.9
1.2
Tackles pg
1.4

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Ajax vs PSV Prediction & Tips | Eredivisie | FootballTips.app