Ajax vs Willem II Prediction & Tips | Eredivisie | FootballTips.app
Ajax
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Willem II
AwayRecommended Bet
Key Factors
donut_small Win Probabilities
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.22 | 1.42 | — | -13.8% |
| Ajax Win | 1.12 | 1.50 | 1.16 | -25.4% |
| Draw | 10.20 | 5.48 | 10.61 | +86.0% |
| Willem II Win | 20.40 | 12.96 | 21.21 | +57.4% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Ajax
Starting 11
Willem II
Starting 11
Match Preview
Ajax and Willem II meet in their rescheduled Matchday 3 fixture, which was moved from August to accommodate Ajax’s UEFA Conference League play-off commitments against Sion. Míchel Sánchez’s side sit fifth with 10 points from five matches, while Willem II remain 17th with two points and are still searching for their first league victory.
Ajax responded emphatically to their 3-1 defeat against PSV by beating Fortuna Sittard 5-1 away from home. Julian Brandt opened the scoring before Fortuna equalised shortly after half-time, but Thilo Kehrer restored Ajax’s lead and substitutes Davy Klaassen and Kasper Dolberg added further goals before Youri Baas completed the rout in stoppage time.
The victory continued an unusual contrast between Ajax’s home and away form. They have won all three league matches on the road, scoring 11 goals and conceding only one, but remain winless in their last five Eredivisie fixtures at the Johan Cruijff ArenA dating back to last season, taking only two points from a possible 15.
Willem II travel to Amsterdam with renewed confidence after becoming the first side to take points from AZ this season. Jordy Clasie gave the league leaders a first-half advantage, but Devin Haen equalised in the 81st minute as John Stegeman’s side held on for a 1-1 draw despite spending long periods under pressure.
That result represented a significant defensive improvement after Willem II had conceded 13 goals across their previous four matches. Maxime Delanghe made four saves, while Haen continued his strong individual start by scoring his third league goal, accounting for three of Willem II’s five strikes this season.
History overwhelmingly favours Ajax, who have won 77 of the 93 Eredivisie meetings between these sides and completed doubles over Willem II in both 2021/22 and 2024/25. The visitors’ resistance at AZ provides a warning, but Ajax should have enough attacking variety to end their poor home run if they maintain the intensity shown in Sittard.
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Based on 22 / 5 matchesradarTeam Profile
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