Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction & Tips | Premier League | FootballTips.app

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

Home
Full Time
1 - 4
HT: 1 - 2
Wednesday 4 March
Chelsea

Chelsea

Away
Aston VillaTimelineChelsea
1st Half
Douglas Luiz (Bailey L.)
sports_soccer
2'
Cash M.
32'
Joao Pedro (Gusto M.)
sports_soccer
35'
Joao PedroAssist: Fernandez E.
sports_soccer
45+6'
2nd Half
Bogarde L.Out: Cash M.
sync_alt
46'
Joao Pedro
54'
Palmer C. (Joao Pedro)
sports_soccer
55'
Rogers M.
58'
Fernandez E.
58'
Sancho J.Out: Buendia E.
sync_alt
63'
Barkley R.Out: Douglas Luiz
sync_alt
63'
AlyssonOut: Bailey L.
sync_alt
63'
Joao Pedro (Garnacho A.)
sports_soccer
64'
Watkins O.
68'
Abraham T.Out: Watkins O.
sync_alt
72'
Lavia R.Out: Gusto M.
sync_alt
75'
Adarabioyo T.Out: Fofana W.
sync_alt
79'
Cucurella M.Out: Fernandez E.
sync_alt
79'
Delap L.Out: Joao Pedro
sync_alt
85'
Andrey SantosOut: Palmer C.
sync_alt
85'

Top stats

0.88Expected goals (xG)3.93
43%Ball possession57%
9Total shots15
4Shots on target8
3Big chances5
3Corner kicks8
86% (361/419)Passes91% (508/557)
3Yellow cards2

Shots

0.88Expected goals (xG)3.93
0.54xG on target (xGOT)4.43
9Total shots15
4Shots on target8
4Shots off target3
1Blocked shots4
6Shots inside the box14
3Shots outside the box1
1Hit the woodwork0

Attack

3Big chances5
3Corner kicks8
17Touches in opposition box35
1Accurate through passes3
2Offsides2
9Free kicks10

Passes

86% (361/419)Passes91% (508/557)
59% (20/34)Long passes50% (14/28)
80% (82/103)Passes in final third81% (74/91)
9% (1/11)Crosses16% (3/19)
1.03Expected assists (xA)2.40
16Throw ins20

Defense

10Fouls9
73% (8/11)Tackles40% (6/15)
27Duels won36
14Clearances15
7Interceptions8
0Errors leading to shot0
0Errors leading to goal0

Goalkeeping

4Goalkeeper saves3
4.43xGOT faced0.54
0.43Goals prevented-0.46
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
12.85
X3.73
22.45

Recommended Bet

Away Win
Stake: Medium (6/10)
57
Opp. Value

Key Factors

League Rank: Home #4 vs Away #6
Season: Home 1.82 PPG vs Away 1.61 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.00 PPG vs Away 1.20 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.43 GPG vs Away 1.86 GPG

donut_small Win Probabilities

33%
26%
41%
Aston Villa
Draw
Chelsea

Match Preview

Aston Villa is set to host Chelsea at Villa Park in the Premier League on March 4, 2026.

With Aston Villa occupying the 4th position and Chelsea in 6th place, Aston Villa holds 51 points compared to Chelsea's 45.

Aston Villa comes into the game with 23 wins out of their last 39 matches, demonstrating their strong form, while Chelsea has secured victories in 22 out of 43 matches this season.

Historically, Aston Villa has struggled against Chelsea, suffering losses in 25 out of 50 head-to-head encounters.

In a closely contested battle, our algorithm predicts that Aston Villa and Chelsea will share the points in a draw.

Aston Villa are in a tough moment but a victory here could prove crucial in their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League.

Unai Emery's side, who are steel reeling from their shock defeat at rock-bottom Wolves, will move nine points clear of Chelsea in the race for the top-five if they get the job done.

Chelsea are also in a tough period after the Arsenal defeat, their third consecutive game without victory, leaves their hopes of playing in Europe's elite competition hanging in the balance.

The Blues have a strong record at Villa Park over the years, losing just three of their last 14 visits.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Aston Villa

Starting 11
-Emiliano Martínez
GK6.81
-Ian Maatsen
DL6.55
-Pau Torres
DC6.55
-Ezri Konsa
DC6.67
-Matty Cash
DR6.88
-Amadou Onana
DMC6.81
-Douglas Luiz
DMC6.94
-Morgan Rogers
AML6.89
-Emiliano Buendía
AMC6.53
-Jadon Sancho
AMR6.34
-Ollie Watkins
FW6.72

Chelsea

Starting 11
-Robert Sánchez
GK6.73
-Jorrel Hato
DL6.30
-Wesley Fofana
DC7.01
-Trevoh Chalobah
DC7.01
-Reece James
DR6.94
-Moisés Caicedo
DMC7.04
-Andrey Santos
DMC6.41
-Alejandro Garnacho
AML6.49
-Enzo Fernández
AMC6.96
-Cole Palmer
AMR6.79
-João Pedro
FW7.07
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 28 matches
Aston VillavsChelsea

radarTeam Profile

Aston Villa
Chelsea
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
39Attack59
shield
48Defense60
swap_horiz
59Possession72
gps_fixed
59Efficiency75
auto_fix_high
31Creativity50
gavel
62Discipline27

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

38Goals Scored49
30Goals Conceded33
8Clean Sheets9
54Big Chances86
39Big Chances Missed46
0Penalty Goals7

gps_fixedShooting

356Total Shots377
122Shots on Target130

swap_horizPassing & Possession

54.0%Avg Possession58.7%
12,610Total Passes15,060
84.9%Pass Accuracy86.9%

shieldDefending

433Tackles453
174Interceptions283
81Saves74
49.5%Duels Won51.2%

gavelDiscipline

292Fouls315
42Yellow Cards68
1Red Cards7
31Offsides39

analyticsOther

151Corners168
182Successful Dribbles206
11Errors Leading to Goal5
6.83Avg Rating6.89

Statistical Comparison

Aston VillaMetricChelsea
36
Goals
48
27
Assists
31
6.5
Average Ratings
6.6
27.2
Average Age
23.8
183.7
Average Height (cm)
184.4
0.9
Shots pg
0.9
52%
Aerial Duel Success
52%
0.6
Dribbles pg
0.5
1.3
Tackles pg
1.2

League Standings Context

For Aston Villa

PosTeamPWDLPts
3Manchester United28149551
4Aston Villa28156751
5Liverpool29146948

For Chelsea

PosTeamPWDLPts
5Liverpool29146948
6Chelsea28129745
7Brentford291351144

Advanced Stats (Avg per match)

50.3/ 86.3
Dangerous Attacks
53.8/ 103.7
38.0%
Shots on Target
36.0%
12.6
Total Shots
14.0
55.0%
Possession
59.0%

Team Performance (Avg)

1.4
Goals Scored / Match
2.0
1.1
Goals Conceded / Match
1.2

Head-to-Head Summary

2
Aston Villa Wins
33%
2
Draws
33%
2
Chelsea Wins
33%
Total H2H Matches: 6

Recent Form Stats

MarketAston VillaChelsea
Over 1.5 Goals
72%28/39
95%37/39
Over 2.5 Goals
49%19/39
77%30/39
Both Teams to Score
54%21/39
74%29/39
* Based on last 39 matches

Past Matches

Last 6: Aston Villa

EPL
Aston Villa
1 - 1
Leeds United
FA
Aston Villa
1 - 3
Newcastle United
EPL
Aston Villa
1 - 0
Brighton
EPL
Aston Villa
0 - 1
Brentford
UEL
Aston Villa
3 - 2
RB Salzburg
EPL
Aston Villa
0 - 1
Everton

Home Games: Aston Villa

EPL
Aston Villa
1 - 1
Leeds United
FA
Aston Villa
1 - 3
Newcastle United
EPL
Aston Villa
1 - 0
Brighton
EPL
Aston Villa
0 - 1
Brentford
UEL
Aston Villa
3 - 2
RB Salzburg
EPL
Aston Villa
0 - 1
Everton

Last 6: Chelsea

EPL
Arsenal
2 - 1
Chelsea
FA
Hull City
0 - 4
Chelsea
EPL
Wolverhampton
1 - 3
Chelsea
EFL
Arsenal
1 - 0
Chelsea
UCL
Napoli
2 - 3
Chelsea
EPL
Crystal Palace
1 - 3
Chelsea

Away Games: Chelsea

EPL
Arsenal
2 - 1
Chelsea
FA
Hull City
0 - 4
Chelsea
EPL
Wolverhampton
1 - 3
Chelsea
EFL
Arsenal
1 - 0
Chelsea
UCL
Napoli
2 - 3
Chelsea
EPL
Crystal Palace
1 - 3
Chelsea

history Recent Form

Aston VillaAston Villa
1.8 GPG
L
D
W
D
L
ChelseaChelsea
1.6 GPG
L
D
D
W
W

group Head to Head

PL27 Dec 2025
Chelsea
1-2
Aston Villa
PL22 Feb 2025
Aston Villa
2-1
Chelsea
PL1 Dec 2024
Chelsea
3-0
Aston Villa
PL27 Apr 2024
Aston Villa
2-2
Chelsea
PL7 Feb 2024
Aston Villa
1-3
Chelsea
63%
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
83%
29 / 35 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
22 / 35 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
29%
10 / 35 matches
Both Teams to Score
54%
19 / 35 matches
Aston Villa CS
20%
Clean Sheets
Chelsea CS
31%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

27 Dec 2025
Chelsea
1 - 2
Aston Villa
22 Feb 2025
Aston Villa
2 - 1
Chelsea
1 Dec 2024
Chelsea
3 - 0
Aston Villa
27 Apr 2024
Aston Villa
2 - 2
Chelsea
7 Feb 2024
Aston Villa
1 - 3
Chelsea
26 Jan 2024
Chelsea
0 - 0
Aston Villa
24 Sept 2023
Chelsea
0 - 1
Aston Villa
1 Apr 2023
Chelsea
0 - 2
Aston Villa
11 Dec 2022
Aston Villa
1 - 0
Chelsea
16 Oct 2022
Aston Villa
0 - 2
Chelsea
26 Dec 2021
Aston Villa
1 - 3
Chelsea
22 Sept 2021
Chelsea
1 - 1
Aston Villa

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Aston Villa
1.82
Form (Overall)
Chelsea
1.61

Aston Villa is +13% better in terms of Points Per Game

Wolverhampton Wanderers
2 - 0
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
1 - 1
Leeds United
Aston Villa
1 - 0
Brighton & Hove Albion
AFC Bournemouth
1 - 1
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
0 - 1
Brentford
Arsenal
2 - 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
1 - 1
Burnley
Chelsea
2 - 2
Leeds United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1 - 3
Chelsea
Chelsea
3 - 2
West Ham United

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