Athletic Club vs Vila Nova FC Prediction & Tips | Serie B | FootballTips.app
Athletic Club
HomeFull Time
5 - 0
HT: 3 - 0
Friday 4 September
Vila Nova FC
AwayAthletic ClubTimelineVila Nova FC
1st Half
Yago SantosAssist: Kauan Rodrigues
sports_soccer
19'
Andre Luis
32'
Nathan Camargo
39'
Carlinhos
sports_soccer
40'
Alex Souza
42'
Vera D. (Carlinhos)
sports_soccer
45'
2nd Half
DodoOut: Nathan Camargo
sync_alt
46'
RyanOut: Everton Galdino
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46'
Jonathan CostaOut: Igor Carius
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46'
JotaOut: Yago Santos
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46'
AssisOut: Kauan Lindes
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63'
Aponza W.Out: Carlinhos
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63'
Vera D.
64'
BruninhoOut: Vera D.
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66'
Tiago Pagnussat
72'
Aponza W.(Penalty)
sports_soccer
74'
RodrigoOut: Marquinhos Gabriel
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75'
Yarlen
79'
Gustavo PuskasOut: Andre Luis
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82'
Philipe SampaioOut: Felipe Negrucci
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86'
Aponza W.
88'
Bruninho (Kauan Rodrigues)
sports_soccer
90+1'
Top stats
3.18Expected goals (xG)0.94
42%Ball possession58%
14Total shots12
11Shots on target4
5Big chances2
2Corner kicks2
83% (309/372)Passes85% (445/522)
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
Shots
3.18Expected goals (xG)0.94
4.75xG on target (xGOT)0.23
14Total shots12
11Shots on target4
2Shots off target4
1Blocked shots4
9Shots inside the box5
5Shots outside the box7
0Hit the woodwork0
Attack
5Big chances2
2Corner kicks2
22Touches in opposition box12
2Accurate through passes0
1Offsides0
11Free kicks17
Passes
83% (309/372)Passes85% (445/522)
43% (21/49)Long passes40% (20/50)
71% (78/110)Passes in final third68% (80/118)
0% (0/15)Crosses25% (3/12)
1.18Expected assists (xA)0.48
22Throw ins26
Defense
17Fouls11
44% (8/18)Tackles60% (9/15)
43Duels won47
22Clearances18
12Interceptions6
0Errors leading to shot0
0Errors leading to goal0
Goalkeeping
3Goalkeeper saves6
0.23xGOT faced4.75
0.23Goals prevented-0.25
7Goal kicks5
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Medium Confidence
12.59
X2.79
22.94
Recommended Bet
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Away Win
Odds: 2.75Stake: Medium (7/10)
68
Opp. Value
Key Factors
⚠️ Using limited statistical data
Attack Quality: Home 30% on target vs Away 35% on target
Standings: Home GD -1 (34pts) vs Away GD +12 (44pts)
👍 GOOD OPPORTUNITY (68)
donut_small Win Probabilities
33%
Athletic Club Win
25%
Draw
42%
Vila Nova FC Win
Athletic Club
Draw
Vila Nova FC
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.40 | 2.12 | 2.58 | +13.1% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.52 | 1.89 | 1.63 | -19.6% |
| Home Win | 2.70 | 3.03 | 2.88 | -10.9% |
| Draw | 3.00 | 4.08 | 3.20 | -26.4% |
| Away Win | 2.75 | 2.35 | 2.94 | +16.8% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.66 | 1.81 | 1.79 | -8.4% |
| BTTS - No | 2.10 | 2.23 | 2.27 | -5.9% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Match Preview
Athletic Club MG faces Vila Nova FC in Brazil's Serie B at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais) on September 5, 2026.
The hosts have managed three wins in their previous six home league fixtures, while Vila Nova FC has recorded 13 victories from 25 Serie B matches this season.
In head-to-head encounters this season, Athletic Club MG and Vila Nova FC have drawn two out of three matches.
Under 2.5 goals have been scored in 60 percent of Athletic Club MG's last ten matches, with a similar trend for Vila Nova FC, who have seen under 2.5 goals in 83 percent of their previous six league outings.
Vila Nova FC to win by 0-1
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 3 / 25 matchesAthletic ClubvsVila Nova FC
1.00Goals / Match1.48
1.67Conceded / Match1.00
1Clean Sheets8
5.00Shots on Target / Match4.16
47.0%Possession %51.9%
81.8%Pass Accuracy %80.4%
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
3Goals Scored37
5Goals Conceded25
1Clean Sheets8
7Big Chances43
5Big Chances Missed17
0Penalty Goals2
gps_fixedShooting
40Total Shots336
15Shots on Target104
swap_horizPassing & Possession
47.0%Avg Possession51.9%
1,260Total Passes9,406
81.8%Pass Accuracy80.4%
shieldDefending
41Tackles337
37Interceptions205
12Saves80
51.7%Duels Won49.8%
gavelDiscipline
34Fouls375
7Yellow Cards62
1Red Cards4
5Offsides37
analyticsOther
22Corners129
31Successful Dribbles136
3Errors Leading to Goal2
6.90Avg Rating6.81
League Standings Context
For Athletic Club
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cuiabá | 25 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 36 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 34 |
| 14 | São Bernardo SP | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
For Vila Nova FC
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 46 |
| 2 | Vila Nova FC | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 44 |
| 3 | Criciúma | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44 |
Advanced Stats (Avg per match)
36.7/ 79.2
Dangerous Attacks
44.2/ 87.0
30.0%
Shots on Target
35.0%
11.1
Total Shots
11.9
45.0%
Possession
53.0%
Team Performance (Avg)
1.1
Goals Scored / Match
1.5
1.2
Goals Conceded / Match
0.9
Head-to-Head Summary
0
Athletic Club Wins
0%
2
Draws
67%
1
Vila Nova FC Wins
33%
Total H2H Matches: 3
Recent Form Stats
| Market | Athletic Club | Vila Nova FC |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76%29/38 | 84%32/38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 37%14/38 | 53%20/38 |
| Both Teams to Score | 61%23/38 | 55%21/38 |
* Based on last 38 matches
Past Matches
Last 6: Athletic Club
Br2
Athletic Club MG
1 - 4
Novorizontino SP
Br2
Athletic Club MG
0 - 2
CRB AL
Br2
Athletic Club MG
2 - 0
Criciúma
Br2
Athletic Club MG
2 - 1
São Bernardo SP
Br2
Athletic Club MG
0 - 1
Operário PR
Br2
Athletic Club MG
1 - 0
Avai FC
Home Games: Athletic Club
Br2
Athletic Club MG
1 - 4
Novorizontino SP
Br2
Athletic Club MG
0 - 2
CRB AL
Br2
Athletic Club MG
2 - 0
Criciúma
Br2
Athletic Club MG
2 - 1
São Bernardo SP
Br2
Athletic Club MG
0 - 1
Operário PR
Br2
Athletic Club MG
1 - 0
Avai FC
Last 6: Vila Nova FC
Br2
Operário PR
0 - 0
Vila Nova FC
Br2
Atlético GO
0 - 2
Vila Nova FC
Br2
CRB AL
2 - 0
Vila Nova FC
Br2
Criciúma
2 - 0
Vila Nova FC
Br2
Juventude
1 - 0
Vila Nova FC
Br2
Novorizontino SP
2 - 1
Vila Nova FC
Away Games: Vila Nova FC
Br2
Operário PR
0 - 0
Vila Nova FC
Br2
Atlético GO
0 - 2
Vila Nova FC
Br2
CRB AL
2 - 0
Vila Nova FC
Br2
Criciúma
2 - 0
Vila Nova FC
Br2
Juventude
1 - 0
Vila Nova FC
Br2
Novorizontino SP
2 - 1
Vila Nova FC
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