Atl. Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction & Tips | Champions League - Play Offs | FootballTips.app

Atl. Madrid

Atl. Madrid

Home
Full Time
1 - 1
HT: 0 - 1
Wednesday 29 April
Arsenal

Arsenal

Away
Atl. MadridTimelineArsenal
1st Half
Gyökeres V.(Penalty)
sports_soccer
44'
2nd Half
Le Normand R.Out: Simeone G.
sync_alt
46'
Alvarez J.(Penalty)
sports_soccer
56'
Eze E.Out: Odegaard M.
sync_alt
58'
Trossard L.Out: Martinelli G.
sync_alt
68'
Saka B.Out: Madueke N.
sync_alt
68'
Gabriel JesusOut: Gyökeres V.
sync_alt
69'
Baena A.Out: Alvarez J.
sync_alt
77'
Hancko D.
78'
Mosquera C.Out: White B.
sync_alt
86'
Molina N.Out: Cardoso J.
sync_alt
88'

Top stats

2.21Expected goals (xG)1.50
52%Ball possession48%
18Total shots11
4Shots on target2
3Big chances2
6Corner kicks1
83% (420/506)Passes88% (422/479)
1Yellow cards0

Shots

2.21Expected goals (xG)1.50
1.78xG on target (xGOT)0.70
18Total shots11
4Shots on target2
8Shots off target4
6Blocked shots5
13Shots inside the box8
5Shots outside the box3
1Hit the woodwork0

Attack

3Big chances2
6Corner kicks1
25Touches in opposition box22
0Accurate through passes0
0Offsides1
11Free kicks7

Passes

83% (420/506)Passes88% (422/479)
38% (23/60)Long passes48% (20/42)
71% (80/113)Passes in final third78% (123/157)
44% (7/16)Crosses57% (4/7)
0.77Expected assists (xA)0.67
23Throw ins12

Defense

7Fouls11
57% (12/21)Tackles71% (5/7)
43Duels won31
5Clearances21
9Interceptions10
0Errors leading to shot3
0Errors leading to goal0

Goalkeeping

1Goalkeeper saves3
0.70xGOT faced1.78
-0.30Goals prevented0.78
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
13.03
X3.27
22.56

Recommended Bet

Away Win
Stake: High (9/10)
87
Opp. Value

Key Factors

Season: Home 1.00 PPG vs Away 1.40 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 0.90 PPG vs Away 1.65 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.60 GPG vs Away 1.00 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.60 conc vs Away 1.25 conc

donut_small Win Probabilities

21%
27%
52%
Atl. Madrid
Draw
Arsenal

Match Preview

An ideological clash as much as a footballing one, Atlético Madrid against Arsenal brings together two sides chasing the same elusive prize, yet arriving via very different paths.

Atlético’s journey has been defined by chaos and attacking explosiveness. Their 34 goals mark a club-record European campaign, and their quarter-final with Barcelona swung wildly before eventually settling in their favour. Arsenal’s route, by contrast, has been built on control and restraint, conceding just five goals all competition and edging past Sporting CP in a tie that barely opened up.

There is recent history too. Arsenal’s emphatic 4-0 victory in the league phase still lingers, yet the Metropolitano offers a different landscape entirely. Atlético have never lost a Champions League knockout match at home to English opposition, a record that reflects the suffocating intensity of Simeone’s environment.

This is, in essence, the classic question: can Arsenal’s defensive structure withstand Atlético’s relentless attacking surges, or will the Spanish side finally meet a system capable of neutralising their chaos?

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Atl. Madrid

Starting 11
-Jan Oblak
GK6.53
-Matteo Ruggeri
DL6.87
-Marc Pubill
DC6.60
-Robin Le Normand
DC6.58
-Marcos Llorente
DR7.02
-Nico González
ML6.25
-Koke
MC6.54
-Johnny Cardoso
MC6.57
-Giuliano Simeone
MR6.84
-Julián Alvarez
FW7.84
-Antoine Griezmann
FW6.87

Arsenal

Starting 11
-David Raya
GK7.22
-Piero Hincapié
DL6.87
-Gabriel Magalhães
DC7.08
-William Saliba
DC6.91
-Ben White
DR6.53
-Martín Zubimendi
DMC7.12
-Declan Rice
DMC7.16
-Leandro Trossard
AML7.03
-Martin Ødegaard
AMC6.90
-Bukayo Saka
AMR7.26
-Viktor Gyökeres
FW6.84
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 14 / 12 matches
Atl. MadridvsArsenal

radarTeam Profile

Atl. Madrid
Arsenal
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
75Attack87
shield
42Defense67
swap_horiz
62Possession64
gps_fixed
90Efficiency88
auto_fix_high
54Creativity73
gavel
59Discipline56

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

34Goals Scored27
26Goals Conceded5
1Clean Sheets8
41Big Chances51
21Big Chances Missed34
2Penalty Goals2

gps_fixedShooting

201Total Shots185
81Shots on Target82

swap_horizPassing & Possession

49.3%Avg Possession53.4%
6,722Total Passes5,433
85.2%Pass Accuracy85.6%

shieldDefending

259Tackles151
131Interceptions92
58Saves28
49.4%Duels Won51.0%

gavelDiscipline

155Fouls142
24Yellow Cards21
19Offsides17

analyticsOther

77Corners69
113Successful Dribbles92
3Errors Leading to Goal0
6.89Avg Rating7.03

Statistical Comparison

Atl. MadridMetricArsenal
33
Goals
27
18
Assists
21
6.7
Average Ratings
6.7
28
Average Age
27.1
181.5
Average Height (cm)
183.7
1
Shots pg
1.1
49%
Aerial Duel Success
55%
0.7
Dribbles pg
0.4
1.5
Tackles pg
0.9

history Recent Form

Atl. MadridAtl. Madrid
1.0 GPG
W
L
L
L
L
ArsenalArsenal
1.4 GPG
W
L
L
W
W

group Head to Head

PL21 Oct 2025
Arsenal
4-0
Atlético Madrid
PL26 Jul 2018
Atlético Madrid
1-1
Arsenal
PL3 May 2018
Atlético Madrid
1-0
Arsenal
PL26 Apr 2018
Arsenal
1-1
Atlético Madrid
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
75%
3 / 4 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
1 / 4 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
25%
1 / 4 matches
Both Teams to Score
50%
2 / 4 matches
Atl. Madrid CS
25%
Clean Sheets
Arsenal CS
25%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

21 Oct 2025
Arsenal
4 - 0
Atlético Madrid
26 Jul 2018
Atlético Madrid
1 - 1
Arsenal
3 May 2018
Atlético Madrid
1 - 0
Arsenal
26 Apr 2018
Arsenal
1 - 1
Atlético Madrid

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Atl. Madrid
1.00
Form (Overall)
Arsenal
1.40

Arsenal is +40% better in terms of Points Per Game

Atlético Madrid
3 - 2
Athletic Club Bilbao
Elche CF
3 - 2
Atlético Madrid
Sevilla FC
2 - 1
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid
1 - 2
FC Barcelona
Real Madrid
3 - 2
Atlético Madrid
Arsenal
1 - 0
Newcastle United
Manchester City
2 - 1
Arsenal
Arsenal
1 - 2
AFC Bournemouth
Arsenal
2 - 0
Everton
Brighton & Hove Albion
0 - 1
Arsenal

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