Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction & Tips | Premier League | FootballTips.app

Brighton

Brighton

Home
Full Time
0 - 1
HT: 0 - 1
Wednesday 4 March
Arsenal

Arsenal

Away
BrightonTimelineArsenal
1st Half
Saka B.Assist: Timber J.
sports_soccer
9'
Mosquera C.
11'
2nd Half
Minteh Y.Out: Mitoma K.
sync_alt
46'
Gomez D.
52'
Havertz K.Out: Gyökeres V.
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59'
Trossard L.Out: Martinelli G.
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60'
Calafiori R.Out: Mosquera C.
sync_alt
64'
Welbeck D.Out: Hinshelwood J.
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69'
Veltman J.Out: Wieffer M.
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77'
Ayari Y.Out: Baleba C.
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78'
Howell H.Out: Gomez D.
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78'
Norgaard C.Out: Zubimendi M.
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80'
Boscagli O.
80'
Kadioglu F.
82'
Ayari Y.
90+4'

Top stats

0.80Expected goals (xG)0.43
60%Ball possession40%
11Total shots7
3Shots on target2
2Big chances0
4Corner kicks3
82% (382/465)Passes71% (227/320)
4Yellow cards1

Shots

0.80Expected goals (xG)0.43
0.65xG on target (xGOT)0.14
11Total shots7
3Shots on target2
3Shots off target4
5Blocked shots1
6Shots inside the box6
5Shots outside the box1
0Hit the woodwork0

Attack

2Big chances0
4Corner kicks3
30Touches in opposition box17
0Accurate through passes1
3Offsides0
12Free kicks14

Passes

82% (382/465)Passes71% (227/320)
48% (25/52)Long passes43% (26/60)
71% (101/143)Passes in final third45% (41/91)
14% (4/29)Crosses14% (1/7)
0.71Expected assists (xA)0.29
23Throw ins24

Defense

14Fouls12
71% (17/24)Tackles33% (5/15)
57Duels won54
28Clearances50
12Interceptions10
1Errors leading to shot1
1Errors leading to goal0

Goalkeeping

1Goalkeeper saves2
0.14xGOT faced0.65
-0.86Goals prevented0.65
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
15.25
X4.08
21.68

Recommended Bet

Away Win
Stake: Low (4/10)
37
Opp. Value

Key Factors

League Rank: Home #12 vs Away #1
Season: Home 1.32 PPG vs Away 2.21 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.75 PPG vs Away 2.30 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.57 GPG vs Away 1.67 GPG

donut_small Win Probabilities

20%
27%
52%
Brighton
Draw
Arsenal

Match Preview

Brighton will clash against Arsenal in the Premier League at American Express Stadium on March 4, 2026.

Brighton finds themselves in the 11th position, whereas league leaders Arsenal sit comfortably in 1st place with a considerable gap of 27 points, Brighton having 37 points and Arsenal boasting 64 points.

Brighton enters the match after enduring 3 losses in their recent 6 games, while Arsenal has shown strength with a 53 percent success rate in away matches in the Premier League.

Looking at their historical meetings, Brighton has struggled, losing 67 percent of their last 6 head-to-head encounters against Arsenal.

In a match where Arsenal is expected to display their dominance, the model predicts a 1-2 victory for Arsenal, indicating a challenging task ahead for Brighton.

Brighton appeared to be heading for a relegation battle, but two excellent wins on the bounce has eased any growing concerns and got them moving in the right direction once again.

The Seagulls are winless in their last five Premier League home games against Arsenal.

Despite a nervy performance against Chelsea, it was once again job done for Arsenal, who are five points clear of Manchester City at the top with just nine games left.

The Gunners have won just eight of their 15 away matches this season and have notably dropped points at the likes of Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Wolves already in 2026.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Brighton

Starting 11
-Bart Verbruggen
GK6.58
-Ferdi Kadioglu
DL6.65
-Lewis Dunk
DC6.75
-Jan Paul van Hecke
DC6.96
-Mats Wieffer
DR6.88
-Pascal Groß
MC6.91
-Carlos Baleba
MC6.30
-Jack Hinshelwood
MC6.35
-Kaoru Mitoma
FWL6.64
-Danny Welbeck
FW6.55
-Diego Gómez
FWR6.77

Arsenal

Starting 11
-David Raya
GK6.61
-Piero Hincapié
DL6.82
-Gabriel Magalhães
DC7.27
-William Saliba
DC6.85
-Jurriën Timber
DR6.96
-Martín Zubimendi
DMC6.96
-Declan Rice
DMC7.32
-Gabriel Martinelli
AML6.41
-Eberechi Eze
AMC6.80
-Bukayo Saka
AMR7.26
-Viktor Gyökeres
FW6.67
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

Statistical Comparison

BrightonMetricArsenal
37
Goals
54
22
Assists
40
6.5
Average Ratings
6.7
26.8
Average Age
26
183.9
Average Height (cm)
183.6
0.8
Shots pg
1
50%
Aerial Duel Success
52%
0.4
Dribbles pg
0.5
1.3
Tackles pg
1.2

League Standings Context

For Brighton

PosTeamPWDLPts
11Sunderland291010940
12Brighton28910937
13Newcastle United281061236

For Arsenal

PosTeamPWDLPts
1Arsenal29197364
2Manchester City28185559

Advanced Stats (Avg per match)

51.4/ 94.1
Dangerous Attacks
59.1/ 101.2
36.0%
Shots on Target
36.0%
13.4
Total Shots
15.1
53.0%
Possession
57.0%

Team Performance (Avg)

1.6
Goals Scored / Match
2.2
1.2
Goals Conceded / Match
0.7

Head-to-Head Summary

0
Brighton Wins
0%
2
Draws
33%
4
Arsenal Wins
67%
Total H2H Matches: 6

Recent Form Stats

MarketBrightonArsenal
Over 1.5 Goals
88%29/33
109%36/33
Over 2.5 Goals
52%17/33
76%25/33
Both Teams to Score
58%19/33
64%21/33
* Based on last 33 matches

Past Matches

Last 6: Brighton

EPL
Brighton
2 - 1
Nottingham Forest
EPL
Brighton
0 - 1
Crystal Palace
EPL
Brighton
1 - 1
Everton
EPL
Brighton
1 - 1
Bournemouth
EPL
Brighton
2 - 0
Burnley
EPL
Brighton
0 - 0
Sunderland

Home Games: Brighton

EPL
Brighton
2 - 1
Nottingham Forest
EPL
Brighton
0 - 1
Crystal Palace
EPL
Brighton
1 - 1
Everton
EPL
Brighton
1 - 1
Bournemouth
EPL
Brighton
2 - 0
Burnley
EPL
Brighton
0 - 0
Sunderland

Last 6: Arsenal

EPL
Tottenham
1 - 4
Arsenal
EPL
Wolverhampton
2 - 2
Arsenal
EPL
Brentford
1 - 1
Arsenal
EPL
Leeds United
0 - 4
Arsenal
UCL
Inter
1 - 3
Arsenal
EPL
Nottingham Forest
0 - 0
Arsenal

Away Games: Arsenal

EPL
Tottenham
1 - 4
Arsenal
EPL
Wolverhampton
2 - 2
Arsenal
EPL
Brentford
1 - 1
Arsenal
EPL
Leeds United
0 - 4
Arsenal
UCL
Inter
1 - 3
Arsenal
EPL
Nottingham Forest
0 - 0
Arsenal

history Recent Form

BrightonBrighton
1.3 GPG
W
W
L
L
D
ArsenalArsenal
2.2 GPG
W
W
D
D
W

group Head to Head

PL27 Dec 2025
Arsenal
2-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
PL29 Oct 2025
Arsenal
2-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
PL4 Jan 2025
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
Arsenal
PL31 Aug 2024
Arsenal
1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
PL6 Apr 2024
Brighton & Hove Albion
0-3
Arsenal
52%
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
90%
19 / 21 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
11 / 21 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
19%
4 / 21 matches
Both Teams to Score
62%
13 / 21 matches
Brighton CS
10%
Clean Sheets
Arsenal CS
33%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

27 Dec 2025
Arsenal
2 - 1
Brighton & Hove Albion
29 Oct 2025
Arsenal
2 - 0
Brighton & Hove Albion
4 Jan 2025
Brighton & Hove Albion
1 - 1
Arsenal
31 Aug 2024
Arsenal
1 - 1
Brighton & Hove Albion
6 Apr 2024
Brighton & Hove Albion
0 - 3
Arsenal
17 Dec 2023
Arsenal
2 - 0
Brighton & Hove Albion
14 May 2023
Arsenal
0 - 3
Brighton & Hove Albion
31 Dec 2022
Brighton & Hove Albion
2 - 4
Arsenal
9 Nov 2022
Arsenal
1 - 3
Brighton & Hove Albion
9 Apr 2022
Arsenal
1 - 2
Brighton & Hove Albion
2 Oct 2021
Brighton & Hove Albion
0 - 0
Arsenal
23 May 2021
Arsenal
2 - 0
Brighton & Hove Albion

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Brighton
1.32
Form (Overall)
Arsenal
2.21

Arsenal is +67% better in terms of Points Per Game

Brighton & Hove Albion
2 - 1
Nottingham Forest
Brentford
0 - 2
Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
1 - 0
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion
0 - 1
Crystal Palace
Brighton & Hove Albion
1 - 1
Everton
Arsenal
2 - 1
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
1 - 4
Arsenal
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2 - 2
Arsenal
Brentford
1 - 1
Arsenal
Arsenal
3 - 0
Sunderland

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