Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction & Tips | EFL Cup | FootballTips.app
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AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
11.66
X3.78
24.56
Recommended Bet
No tip
No qualifying edge — see Value Comparison below
Key Factors
Season: Home 1.90 PPG vs Away 2.10 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.80 PPG vs Away 1.53 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 2.33 GPG vs Away 1.43 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.00 conc vs Away 1.00 conc
donut_small Win Probabilities
54%
24%
22%
Chelsea
Draw
Leeds
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.66 | 1.71 | — | -2.9% |
| Chelsea Win | 1.63 | 1.85 | 1.77 | -11.9% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.19 | 4.19 | -8.1% |
| Leeds United Win | 4.65 | 4.53 | 5.06 | +2.7% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.67 | 1.83 | — | -8.5% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 38 matchesChelseavsLeeds
1.53Goals / Match1.29
1.37Conceded / Match1.47
9Clean Sheets8
4.37Shots on Target / Match3.97
57.7%Possession %45.7%
87.2%Pass Accuracy %79.4%
radarTeam Profile
Chelsea
Leeds
sports_soccer
51Attack39
shield
50Defense47
swap_horiz
71Possession39
gps_fixed
66Efficiency57
auto_fix_high
45Creativity25
gavel
30Discipline60
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
58Goals Scored49
52Goals Conceded56
9Clean Sheets8
102Big Chances89
57Big Chances Missed57
7Penalty Goals6
gps_fixedShooting
509Total Shots478
166Shots on Target151
swap_horizPassing & Possession
57.7%Avg Possession45.7%
20,535Total Passes15,039
87.2%Pass Accuracy79.4%
shieldDefending
592Tackles661
371Interceptions340
106Saves101
50.9%Duels Won49.2%
gavelDiscipline
420Fouls398
94Yellow Cards63
8Red Cards1
58Offsides60
analyticsOther
226Corners168
273Successful Dribbles214
9Errors Leading to Goal3
6.85Avg Rating6.78
history Recent Form
ChelseaL
W
W
LeedsD
D
W
group Head to Head
PL26 Apr 2026
1-0
PL10 Feb 2026
2-2
PL3 Dec 2025
3-1
PL28 Feb 2024
3-2
PL4 Mar 2023
1-0
73%
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
8 / 11 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
73%
8 / 11 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
55%
6 / 11 matches
Both Teams to Score
55%
6 / 11 matches
Chelsea CS
36%
Clean Sheets
Leeds CS
18%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
26 Apr 2026
Chelsea
1 - 0
Leeds United
10 Feb 2026
Chelsea
2 - 2
Leeds United
3 Dec 2025
Leeds United
3 - 1
Chelsea
28 Feb 2024
Chelsea
3 - 2
Leeds United
4 Mar 2023
Chelsea
1 - 0
Leeds United
21 Aug 2022
Leeds United
3 - 0
Chelsea
11 May 2022
Leeds United
0 - 3
Chelsea
11 Dec 2021
Chelsea
3 - 2
Leeds United
13 Mar 2021
Leeds United
0 - 0
Chelsea
5 Dec 2020
Chelsea
3 - 1
Leeds United
19 Dec 2012
Leeds United
1 - 5
Chelsea
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
1.90
Form (Overall)
2.10
Leeds is +11% better in terms of Points Per Game
Arsenal
2 - 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
4 - 3
Brighton & Hove Albion
Fulham
2 - 3
Chelsea
Brighton & Hove Albion
1 - 1
Leeds United
Leeds United
1 - 1
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
0 - 1
Leeds United
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