Derby vs Birmingham Prediction & Tips | Championship | FootballTips.app
Derby
HomeFull Time
1 - 0
HT: 1 - 0
Saturday 21 March
Birmingham
Awayauto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
12.76
X3.27
22.64
Recommended Bet
Away Win
Stake: High (9/10)
87
Opp. Value
Key Factors
League Rank: Home #8 vs Away #10
Season: Home 1.50 PPG vs Away 1.39 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.95 PPG vs Away 1.05 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.37 GPG vs Away 0.79 GPG
donut_small Win Probabilities
27%
23%
50%
Derby
Draw
Birmingham
Match Preview
Sammie Szmodics' eighth-minute opener proved to be the difference on Monday night as Derby snatched all three points away from a relegation-threatened Portsmouth side. The Rams have roared back in the play-off race, closing to within three points of Wrexham after winning three of their last four.
Birmingham were unable to take full advantage of a 23rd-minute Femi Seriki red card in gameweek 38, drawing 1-1 with Sheffield United despite taking a first-half lead. The Blues remain an outside factor in the play-off race, but have won just one of their last five Championship contests.
Lineups
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Derby
Starting 11
-Richard O'Donnell
GK6.88
-Craig Forsyth
DL6.66
-Matt Clarke
DC7.13
-Dion Sanderson
DC6.70
-Joe Ward
DR6.92
-Lewis Travis
DMC6.45
-David Ozoh
DMC6.45
-Rhian Brewster
AML6.60
-Sam Szmodics
AMC6.77
-Ben Brereton
AMR6.57
-Patrick Agyemang
FW6.81
Birmingham
Starting 11
-James Beadle
GK6.61
-Ethan Laird
DL6.61
-Jonathan Panzo
DC6.59
-Christoph Klarer
DC7.12
-Tomoki Iwata
DR6.65
-Jhon Solís
DMC6.42
-Paik Seung-Ho
DMC6.74
-Ibrahim Osman
AML6.62
-Marvin Ducksch
AMC6.66
-Patrick Roberts
AMR6.76
-Jay Stansfield
FW6.54
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 38 / 10 matchesDerbyvsBirmingham
radarTeam Profile
Derby
Birmingham
sports_soccer
36Attack52
shield
48Defense75
swap_horiz
27Possession70
gps_fixed
74Efficiency85
auto_fix_high
31Creativity46
gavel
39Discipline55
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
55Goals Scored17
48Goals Conceded6
9Clean Sheets6
80Big Chances28
47Big Chances Missed19
4Penalty Goals1
gps_fixedShooting
396Total Shots119
129Shots on Target51
swap_horizPassing & Possession
43.3%Avg Possession56.4%
12,587Total Passes4,993
74.3%Pass Accuracy87.2%
shieldDefending
556Tackles146
335Interceptions77
116Saves42
48.9%Duels Won50.3%
gavelDiscipline
457Fouls114
91Yellow Cards19
3Red Cards0
56Offsides13
analyticsOther
172Corners49
207Successful Dribbles75
4Errors Leading to Goal1
6.76Avg Rating6.95
Statistical Comparison
DerbyMetricBirmingham
52
Goals
47
34
Assists
30
6.5
Average Ratings
6.5
28.5
Average Age
25.3
183.3
Average Height (cm)
181.3
0.7
Shots pg
0.9
52%
Aerial Duel Success
50%
0.5
Dribbles pg
0.5
1.1
Tackles pg
1.1
history Recent Form
DerbyW
L
W
W
L
BirminghamD
W
L
L
L
group Head to Head
PL26 Dec 2025
1-1
PL30 Jan 2022
2-2
PL10 Sept 2021
2-0
PL24 Apr 2021
1-2
PL29 Dec 2020
0-4
67%
Over 2.5 Goals
74%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
93%
25 / 27 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
18 / 27 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
44%
12 / 27 matches
Both Teams to Score
74%
20 / 27 matches
Derby CS
15%
Clean Sheets
Birmingham CS
11%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
26 Dec 2025
Birmingham City
1 - 1
Derby County
30 Jan 2022
Derby County
2 - 2
Birmingham City
10 Sept 2021
Birmingham City
2 - 0
Derby County
24 Apr 2021
Derby County
1 - 2
Birmingham City
29 Dec 2020
Birmingham City
0 - 4
Derby County
22 Jul 2020
Birmingham City
1 - 3
Derby County
28 Sept 2019
Derby County
3 - 2
Birmingham City
19 Apr 2019
Birmingham City
2 - 2
Derby County
3 Nov 2018
Derby County
3 - 1
Birmingham City
13 Jan 2018
Birmingham City
0 - 3
Derby County
23 Sept 2017
Derby County
1 - 1
Birmingham City
8 Apr 2017
Birmingham City
1 - 2
Derby County
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
1.50
Form (Overall)
1.39
Derby is +8% better in terms of Points Per Game
Portsmouth
0 - 1
Derby County
Millwall
1 - 0
Derby County
Derby County
2 - 1
Sheffield Wednesday
Derby County
3 - 1
Blackburn Rovers
Hull City
4 - 2
Derby County
Birmingham City
1 - 1
Sheffield United
Birmingham City
1 - 0
Queens Park Rangers
Charlton Athletic
1 - 0
Birmingham City
Birmingham City
1 - 3
Middlesbrough
Millwall
3 - 0
Birmingham City
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
12.76
X3.27
22.64
Recommended Bet
Away Win
Stake: High (9/10)
87
Opp. Value
Key Factors
League Rank: Home #8 vs Away #10
Season: Home 1.50 PPG vs Away 1.39 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.95 PPG vs Away 1.05 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.37 GPG vs Away 0.79 GPG
Match Preview
Sammie Szmodics' eighth-minute opener proved to be the difference on Monday night as Derby snatched all three points away from a relegation-threatened Portsmouth side. The Rams have roared back in the play-off race, closing to within three points of Wrexham after winning three of their last four.
Birmingham were unable to take full advantage of a 23rd-minute Femi Seriki red card in gameweek 38, drawing 1-1 with Sheffield United despite taking a first-half lead. The Blues remain an outside factor in the play-off race, but have won just one of their last five Championship contests.
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 38 / 10 matchesDerbyvsBirmingham
radarTeam Profile
Derby
Birmingham
sports_soccer
36Attack52
shield
48Defense75
swap_horiz
27Possession70
gps_fixed
74Efficiency85
auto_fix_high
31Creativity46
gavel
39Discipline55
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
55Goals Scored17
48Goals Conceded6
9Clean Sheets6
80Big Chances28
47Big Chances Missed19
4Penalty Goals1
gps_fixedShooting
396Total Shots119
129Shots on Target51
swap_horizPassing & Possession
43.3%Avg Possession56.4%
12,587Total Passes4,993
74.3%Pass Accuracy87.2%
shieldDefending
556Tackles146
335Interceptions77
116Saves42
48.9%Duels Won50.3%
gavelDiscipline
457Fouls114
91Yellow Cards19
3Red Cards0
56Offsides13
analyticsOther
172Corners49
207Successful Dribbles75
4Errors Leading to Goal1
6.76Avg Rating6.95
history Recent Form
DerbyW
L
W
W
L
BirminghamD
W
L
L
L
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
93%
25 / 27 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
18 / 27 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
44%
12 / 27 matches
Both Teams to Score
74%
20 / 27 matches
Derby CS
15%
Clean Sheets
Birmingham CS
11%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
26 Dec 2025
Birmingham City
1 - 1
Derby County
30 Jan 2022
Derby County
2 - 2
Birmingham City
10 Sept 2021
Birmingham City
2 - 0
Derby County
24 Apr 2021
Derby County
1 - 2
Birmingham City
29 Dec 2020
Birmingham City
0 - 4
Derby County
22 Jul 2020
Birmingham City
1 - 3
Derby County
28 Sept 2019
Derby County
3 - 2
Birmingham City
19 Apr 2019
Birmingham City
2 - 2
Derby County
3 Nov 2018
Derby County
3 - 1
Birmingham City
13 Jan 2018
Birmingham City
0 - 3
Derby County
23 Sept 2017
Derby County
1 - 1
Birmingham City
8 Apr 2017
Birmingham City
1 - 2
Derby County
donut_small Win Probabilities
27%
23%
50%
Derby
Draw
Birmingham
Lineups
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Derby
Starting 11
-Richard O'Donnell
GK6.88
-Craig Forsyth
DL6.66
-Matt Clarke
DC7.13
-Dion Sanderson
DC6.70
-Joe Ward
DR6.92
-Lewis Travis
DMC6.45
-David Ozoh
DMC6.45
-Rhian Brewster
AML6.60
-Sam Szmodics
AMC6.77
-Ben Brereton
AMR6.57
-Patrick Agyemang
FW6.81
Birmingham
Starting 11
-James Beadle
GK6.61
-Ethan Laird
DL6.61
-Jonathan Panzo
DC6.59
-Christoph Klarer
DC7.12
-Tomoki Iwata
DR6.65
-Jhon Solís
DMC6.42
-Paik Seung-Ho
DMC6.74
-Ibrahim Osman
AML6.62
-Marvin Ducksch
AMC6.66
-Patrick Roberts
AMR6.76
-Jay Stansfield
FW6.54
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
Statistical Comparison
DerbyMetricBirmingham
52
Goals
47
34
Assists
30
6.5
Average Ratings
6.5
28.5
Average Age
25.3
183.3
Average Height (cm)
181.3
0.7
Shots pg
0.9
52%
Aerial Duel Success
50%
0.5
Dribbles pg
0.5
1.1
Tackles pg
1.1
group Head to Head
PL26 Dec 2025
1-1
PL30 Jan 2022
2-2
PL10 Sept 2021
2-0
PL24 Apr 2021
1-2
PL29 Dec 2020
0-4
67%
Over 2.5 Goals
74%
Both Team Score
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
1.50
Form (Overall)
1.39
Derby is +8% better in terms of Points Per Game
Portsmouth
0 - 1
Derby County
Millwall
1 - 0
Derby County
Derby County
2 - 1
Sheffield Wednesday
Derby County
3 - 1
Blackburn Rovers
Hull City
4 - 2
Derby County
Birmingham City
1 - 1
Sheffield United
Birmingham City
1 - 0
Queens Park Rangers
Charlton Athletic
1 - 0
Birmingham City
Birmingham City
1 - 3
Middlesbrough
Millwall
3 - 0
Birmingham City
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