Derby vs Swansea Prediction & Tips | Championship | FootballTips.app

Derby

Derby

Home
Full Time
2 - 0
HT: 0 - 0
Saturday 14 February
Swansea

Swansea

Away
DerbyTimelineSwansea
1st Half
Agyemang P.
27'
Stamenic M.
44'
2nd Half
Brewster R. ()
sports_soccer
47'
Clarke M.
51'
Gustavo NunesOut: Eom J.
sync_alt
65'
Walta L.Out: Cullen L.
sync_alt
65'
Agyemang P. (Elder C.)
sports_soccer
67'
Thompson L.Out: Brewster R.
sync_alt
72'
Clark B.Out: Fraulo O.
sync_alt
72'
Cabango B.
76'
Yalcouye M.Out: Franco G.
sync_alt
77'
Widell M.Out: Ronald
sync_alt
77'
Fulton J.Out: Stamenic M.
sync_alt
85'
Banel J.Out: Szmodics S.
sync_alt
88'
Salvesen L.Out: Agyemang P.
sync_alt
88'
Morris C.Out: Brereton Diaz B.
sync_alt
90+5'

Top stats

0.80Expected goals (xG)1.01
28%Ball possession72%
11Total shots15
6Shots on target2
3Big chances1
6Corner kicks2
70% (159/226)Passes87% (501/579)
2Yellow cards2

Shots

0.80Expected goals (xG)1.01
2.22xG on target (xGOT)0.21
11Total shots15
6Shots on target2
2Shots off target7
3Blocked shots6
5Shots inside the box5
6Shots outside the box10
0Hit the woodwork0
1Headed goals0

Attack

3Big chances1
6Corner kicks2
10Touches in opposition box16
0Accurate through passes0
2Offsides1
12Free kicks20

Passes

70% (159/226)Passes87% (501/579)
46% (29/63)Long passes40% (22/55)
56% (36/64)Passes in final third73% (107/146)
36% (4/11)Crosses10% (2/20)
0.42Expected assists (xA)0.86
22Throw ins19

Defense

20Fouls12
54% (7/13)Tackles90% (18/20)
48Duels won54
30Clearances12
7Interceptions7
1Errors leading to shot0
0Errors leading to goal0

Goalkeeping

2Goalkeeper saves3
0.21xGOT faced2.22
0.21Goals prevented0.22
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
12.46
X3.07
23.19

Recommended Bet

Draw
Stake: Medium (8/10)
76
Opp. Value

Key Factors

League Rank: Home #11 vs Away #15
Season: Home 1.45 PPG vs Away 1.35 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.70 PPG vs Away 2.20 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.19 GPG vs Away 0.93 GPG

donut_small Win Probabilities

27%
44%
29%
Derby
Draw
Swansea

Match Preview

Derby County will host Swansea City at Pride Park Stadium in the Championship on February 14, 2026.

Positioned 9th with 45 points, Derby County will face 15th-placed Swansea City, who have accumulated 42 points.

Derby County has encountered difficulties at home, suffering 3 losses in their last 6 home matches across all leagues, while Swansea City has impressed with 3 wins in their recent 6 Championship games.

Examining their historical head-to-head encounters, Derby County has struggled, losing 4 out of their last 6 matches against Swansea City in the Championship.

As Derby County looks to overcome their home struggles and Swansea City aims to maintain their positive momentum, both teams will be focused on securing a vital victory in this upcoming match.

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals scored.

Rhian Brewster's second-half penalty counted for nothing in gameweek 31 as Derby were beaten 2-1 on home soil by a promotion-chasing Ipswich side. Before that result, the Rams had taken 10 points from their previous four Championship outings.

Swansea dominated Championship basement boys Sheffield Wednesday last weekend as Zan Vipotnik's late brace put the icing on a 4-0 home win. The Welsh club are finding their feet under new boss Vitor Matos, and have won three of their last four league fixtures ahead of the trip to Pride Park.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Derby

Starting 11
-Josh Vickers
GK6.77
-Derry John Murkin
DL6.55
-Matt Clarke
DC7.04
-Dion Sanderson
DC6.69
-Joe Ward
DR6.95
-David Ozoh
DMC6.51
-Bobby Clark
DMC6.55
-Rhian Brewster
AML6.53
-Sam Szmodics
AMC
-Ben Brereton
AMR6.58
-Patrick Agyemang
FW6.83

Swansea

Starting 11
-Lawrence Vigouroux
GK6.83
-Josh Tymon
DL6.91
-Cameron Burgess
DC7.07
-Ben Cabango
DC6.96
-Ethan Galbraith
DR6.78
-Marko Stamenic
DMC6.73
-Gonçalo Franco
DMC6.79
-Gustavo Nunes
AML6.82
-Malick Yalcouyé
AMC6.24
-Ronald
AMR6.63
-Zan Vipotnik
FW6.87
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 31 matches
DerbyvsSwansea

radarTeam Profile

Derby
Swansea
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
34Attack33
shield
47Defense57
swap_horiz
26Possession51
gps_fixed
78Efficiency55
auto_fix_high
29Creativity27
gavel
38Discipline55

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

45Goals Scored38
39Goals Conceded37
7Clean Sheets9
58Big Chances48
31Big Chances Missed32
4Penalty Goals1

gps_fixedShooting

311Total Shots386
102Shots on Target123

swap_horizPassing & Possession

42.8%Avg Possession54.9%
10,296Total Passes14,268
74.6%Pass Accuracy80.2%

shieldDefending

466Tackles476
270Interceptions302
92Saves101
48.7%Duels Won50.2%

gavelDiscipline

374Fouls310
72Yellow Cards64
3Red Cards1
47Offsides66

analyticsOther

148Corners154
167Successful Dribbles181
1Errors Leading to Goal2
6.76Avg Rating6.80

Statistical Comparison

DerbyMetricSwansea
42
Goals
37
29
Assists
29
6.5
Average Ratings
6.5
26.2
Average Age
24.7
182.7
Average Height (cm)
181.6
0.6
Shots pg
0.8
51%
Aerial Duel Success
46%
0.6
Dribbles pg
0.5
1
Tackles pg
1.3

League Standings Context

For Derby

PosTeamPWDLPts
10Birmingham City3212101046
11Derby County311291045
12Watford311111944

For Swansea

PosTeamPWDLPts
14Stoke City321271343
15Swansea City311261342
16Norwich City321161539

Advanced Stats (Avg per match)

41.1/ 87.8
Dangerous Attacks
41.0/ 101.1
33.0%
Shots on Target
32.0%
9.7
Total Shots
12.8
43.0%
Possession
54.0%

Team Performance (Avg)

1.4
Goals Scored / Match
1.3
1.3
Goals Conceded / Match
1.3

Head-to-Head Summary

1
Derby Wins
17%
1
Draws
17%
4
Swansea Wins
67%
Total H2H Matches: 6

Recent Form Stats

MarketDerbySwansea
Over 1.5 Goals
79%27/34
79%27/34
Over 2.5 Goals
53%18/34
53%18/34
Both Teams to Score
74%25/34
65%22/34
* Based on last 34 matches

Past Matches

Last 6: Derby

CH
Derby County
1 - 2
Ipswich Town
CH
Bristol City
0 - 5
Derby County
CH
Derby County
1 - 1
West Bromwich
CH
Charlton Athletic
1 - 2
Derby County
CH
Preston North End
0 - 1
Derby County
FA
Derby County
1 - 3
Leeds United

Home Games: Derby

CH
Derby County
1 - 2
Ipswich Town
CH
Derby County
1 - 1
West Bromwich
FA
Derby County
1 - 3
Leeds United
CH
Derby County
1 - 2
Wrexham FC
CH
Derby County
1 - 0
Middlesbrough
CH
Derby County
1 - 1
Portsmouth

Last 6: Swansea

CH
Swansea City
4 - 0
Sheffield Wednesday
CH
Watford
0 - 2
Swansea City
CH
Hull City
2 - 1
Swansea City
CH
Swansea City
3 - 1
Blackburn Rovers
CH
Swansea City
1 - 1
Birmingham City
FA
Swansea City
1 - 1
West Bromwich

Away Games: Swansea

CH
Watford
0 - 2
Swansea City
CH
Hull City
2 - 1
Swansea City
CH
Millwall
2 - 1
Swansea City
CH
Oxford United
0 - 1
Swansea City
CH
Coventry City
1 - 0
Swansea City
CH
Stoke City
2 - 1
Swansea City

history Recent Form

DerbyDerby
1.4 GPG
L
W
D
W
W
SwanseaSwansea
1.4 GPG
W
W
L
W
D

group Head to Head

PL25 Nov 2025
Swansea City
1-2
Derby County
PL5 Apr 2025
Swansea City
1-0
Derby County
PL27 Nov 2024
Derby County
1-2
Swansea City
PL9 Apr 2022
Swansea City
2-1
Derby County
PL2 Oct 2021
Derby County
0-0
Swansea City
47%
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
65%
11 / 17 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
8 / 17 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
12%
2 / 17 matches
Both Teams to Score
59%
10 / 17 matches
Derby CS
24%
Clean Sheets
Swansea CS
35%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

25 Nov 2025
Swansea City
1 - 2
Derby County
5 Apr 2025
Swansea City
1 - 0
Derby County
27 Nov 2024
Derby County
1 - 2
Swansea City
9 Apr 2022
Swansea City
2 - 1
Derby County
2 Oct 2021
Derby County
0 - 0
Swansea City
1 May 2021
Swansea City
2 - 1
Derby County
16 Dec 2020
Derby County
2 - 0
Swansea City
8 Feb 2020
Swansea City
2 - 3
Derby County
10 Aug 2019
Derby County
0 - 0
Swansea City
1 May 2019
Swansea City
1 - 1
Derby County
1 Dec 2018
Derby County
2 - 1
Swansea City
12 Mar 2011
Derby County
2 - 1
Swansea City

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Derby
1.45
Form (Overall)
Swansea
1.35

Derby is +7% better in terms of Points Per Game

Derby County
1 - 2
Ipswich Town
Bristol City
0 - 5
Derby County
Derby County
1 - 1
West Bromwich Albion
Charlton Athletic
1 - 2
Derby County
Preston North End
0 - 1
Derby County
Swansea City
4 - 0
Sheffield Wednesday
Watford
0 - 2
Swansea City
Hull City
2 - 1
Swansea City
Swansea City
3 - 1
Blackburn Rovers
Swansea City
1 - 1
Birmingham City

Subscribe for Betting Tips

Get exclusive predictions delivered to your inbox.

No spam, unsubscribe at any time.