Estonia vs Iceland Prediction & Tips | UEFA Nations League - League C | FootballTips.app
Estonia
HomeFull Time
0 - 0
HT: 0 - 0
Tuesday 6 October
Iceland
Awayauto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Medium Confidence
15.43
X3.91
21.60
Recommended Bet
cancel
Both Teams to Score
Odds: 1.90Stake: High (8/10)
81
Opp. Value
Key Factors
Season: Home 1.10 PPG vs Away 1.20 PPG
Recent Form: Home 1.10 PPG vs Away 1.20 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 0.75 GPG vs Away 1.00 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.00 conc vs Away 1.63 conc
donut_small Win Probabilities
29%
24%
48%
Estonia
Draw
Iceland
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.83 | 1.94 | 1.96 | -5.7% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.90 | 2.06 | 2.04 | -7.9% |
| Estonia Win | 5.25 | 3.49 | 5.69 | +50.5% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.22 | 4.23 | -7.7% |
| Iceland Win | 1.57 | 2.10 | 1.70 | -25.2% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.90 | 1.72 | 2.06 | +10.5% |
| BTTS - No | 1.80 | 2.39 | 1.95 | -24.7% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Estonia
Starting 11
21Mattias Männilaan
CF6.72
4Mattias Käit
CM6.73
10Kevor Palumets
CDM6.55
14Patrik Kristal
CM6.64
20Markus Poom
CDM7.01
2Märten Kuusk
CB6.78
3Maksim Paskotši
CB7.28
6Rasmus Peetson
CB7.68
18Karol Mets
CB6.91
19Michael Schjonning-Larsen
LB6.81
12Matvei Igonen
GK6.88
Substitutes
7Robi Saarma
RW6.97
9Karel Mustmaa
CF6.56
16Alex Matthias Tamm
CF
8Markus Soomets
CM4.41
11Mihkel Ainsalu
CM6.75
-Maksimilian Skvortsov
CAM
5Erko Jonne Tõugjas
CB6.78
-Joseph Saliste
LB
-Joonas Tamm
CB
23Frank Liivak
RB6.64
1Karl Hein
GK7.50
-Karl Andre Vallner
GK
Iceland
Starting 11
9Orri Steinn Óskarsson
CF7.63
20Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
LW6.99
18Mikael Anderson
LW6.88
21Arnór Sigurdsson
LW6.65
6Andri Baldursson
CDM7.11
7Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
CAM7.41
8Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
CM6.87
17Aron Einar Gunnarsson
CDM6.74
19Mikael Egill Ellertsson
CM7.07
23Hörður Björgvin Magnússon
CB6.70
12Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson
GK7.29
Substitutes
5Isak Thorvaldsson
CF6.42
14Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson
CF6.56
-Daniel Gudjohnsen
CF
22Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen
CF7.59
10Gylfi Sigurdsson
CAM7.06
16Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
CM7.03
-Thórir Jóhann Helgason
CM
2Logi Tómasson
LB6.72
3Daníel Leó Grétarsson
CB6.94
4Victor Pálsson
CB7.22
-Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson
GK
-Anton Ari Einarsson
GK
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
Match Preview
Estonia host Iceland in UEFA Nations League League C Group 4 at Sportland Arena on 6 October 2026 GMT.
Estonia come from a 1-0 win over Luxembourg in their latest tournament match, while Iceland strengthened their position by beating Bulgaria 3-0.
The first group meeting between these sides ended 1-1, and Estonia have drawn 50% of their last 6 matches.
Home form remains a concern for Estonia, with 3 defeats in their last 5 matches at home.
Iceland have won 3 of their last 6 matches across all leagues and have taken victory in 50% of their last 2 UEFA Nations League away games.
Our model prediction is Estonia and Iceland to draw with probability 39%.
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 8 / 6 matchesEstoniavsIceland
1.00Goals / Match2.17
2.63Conceded / Match1.83
0Clean Sheets2
3.00Shots on Target / Match4.00
40.6%Possession %52.2%
79.9%Pass Accuracy %84.6%
radarTeam Profile
Estonia
Iceland
sports_soccer
9Attack55
shield
26Defense43
swap_horiz
36Possession55
gps_fixed
86Efficiency93
auto_fix_high
14Creativity47
gavel
16Discipline64
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
8Goals Scored13
21Goals Conceded11
0Clean Sheets2
7Big Chances13
2Big Chances Missed5
gps_fixedShooting
61Total Shots61
24Shots on Target24
swap_horizPassing & Possession
40.6%Avg Possession52.2%
2,823Total Passes2,981
79.9%Pass Accuracy84.6%
shieldDefending
114Tackles74
69Interceptions55
39Saves18
44.1%Duels Won51.3%
gavelDiscipline
119Fouls67
18Yellow Cards8
2Red Cards0
8Offsides6
analyticsOther
17Corners23
49Successful Dribbles32
2Errors Leading to Goal2
6.68Avg Rating6.90
League Standings Context
For Estonia
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
For Iceland
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Advanced Stats (Avg per match)
21.6/ 52.5
Dangerous Attacks
30.6/ 75.3
42.0%
Shots on Target
41.0%
6.1
Total Shots
8.2
41.0%
Possession
49.0%
Team Performance (Avg)
0.9
Goals Scored / Match
2.0
2.0
Goals Conceded / Match
1.6
Head-to-Head Summary
0
Estonia Wins
0%
1
Draws
100%
0
Iceland Wins
0%
Total H2H Matches: 1
Recent Form Stats
| Market | Estonia | Iceland |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73%8/11 | 100%11/11 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55%6/11 | 73%8/11 |
| Both Teams to Score | 64%7/11 | 55%6/11 |
* Based on last 11 matches
Past Matches
Home Games: Estonia
Estonia
1 - 0
Estonia
1 - 1
Away Games: Iceland
Luxembourg
0 - 3
Ukraine
2 - 0
history Recent Form
EstoniaIcelandgroup Head to Head
PL26 Sept 2026
1-1
PL8 Jan 2023
1-1
PL31 Mar 2015
1-1
0%
Over 2.5 Goals
100%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
100%
3 / 3 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0 / 3 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
0%
0 / 3 matches
Both Teams to Score
100%
3 / 3 matches
Estonia CS
0%
Clean Sheets
Iceland CS
0%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
26 Sept 2026
Iceland
1 - 1
Estonia
8 Jan 2023
Iceland
1 - 1
Estonia
31 Mar 2015
Estonia
1 - 1
Iceland
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
1.10
Form (Overall)
1.20
Iceland is +9% better in terms of Points Per Game
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