France vs Italy Prediction & Tips | UEFA Nations League - League A | FootballTips.app

France

France

Home
Full Time
1 - 1
HT: 0 - 0
Saturday 3 October
Italy

Italy

Away
FranceTimelineItaly
2nd Half
Fagioli N.
54'
Olise M. (Cherki R.)
sports_soccer
55'
Barella N.Out: Tonali S.
sync_alt
62'
Vergara A.Out: Esposito F.
sync_alt
62'
Bastoni A.
sports_soccer
68'
Upamecano D.
73'
Kean M.
73'
Barcola B.Out: Doue D.
sync_alt
76'
Camavinga E.Out: Cherki R.
sync_alt
76'
Maldini D.Out: Esposito Se.
sync_alt
80'
Doumbia I.Out: Frattesi D.
sync_alt
80'
Vergara A.
82'
Upamecano D.
85'
Lacroix M.Out: Da Cunha L.
sync_alt
87'
Scamacca G.Out: Fagioli N.
sync_alt
90'
Bastoni A.
90+2'
No statistics available for this match
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Model Confidence
11.42
X4.88
26.44

Recommended Bet

No tip
No qualifying edge — see Value Comparison below
69
Best near-miss

Key Factors

Season: Home 2.40 PPG vs Away 2.20 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.95 PPG vs Away 2.05 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 2.50 GPG vs Away 2.00 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.50 conc vs Away 0.50 conc

donut_small Win Probabilities

43%
26%
31%
France
Draw
Italy
payments

Value Comparison

OutcomeMarket OddsTrue Odds (AI)Value
Over 2.5 Goals1.421.66-14.2%
Under 2.5 Goals2.702.52+6.9%
France Win1.442.31-37.6%
Draw5.103.85+32.4%
Italy Win6.505.64+15.2%
BTTS - Yes1.571.66-5.7%
BTTS - No2.202.51-12.2%

Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.

Match Preview

France were heading for a goalless stalemate at Stade Roi Baudouin on Monday night before Michael Olise netted an 88th-minute winner off the bench. Zinedine Zidane has started his tenure with back-to-back wins and clean sheets.

Italy bounced back in style after suffering a humiliating 2-0 home defeat to Belgium in their Nations League opener. Roberto Mancini's men hammered Türkiye 4-1 on the road on Monday, scoring three times before the 28th minute.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

France

Starting 11
-Mike Maignan
GK6.96
-Adrien Truffert
DL7.00
-Maxence Lacroix
DC7.43
-Dayot Upamecano
DC7.34
-Jules Koundé
DR7.94
-Adrien Rabiot
DMC6.07
-Eduardo Camavinga
DMC6.42
-Désiré Doué
AML7.42
-Rayan Cherki
AMC6.48
-Michael Olise
AMR7.68
-Ousmane Dembélé
FW6.73

Italy

Starting 11
-Gianluigi Donnarumma
GK6.93
-Riccardo Calafiori
DL6.32
-Alessandro Bastoni
DC7.23
-Giorgio Scalvini
DC6.84
-Giovanni Di Lorenzo
DR6.11
-Sandro Tonali
MC6.50
-Davide Frattesi
MC7.16
-Nicolò Barella
MC6.75
-Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWL6.74
-Francesco Pio Esposito
FW7.42
-Moise Kean
FWR6.41
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 8 matches
FrancevsItaly
3.00Goals / Match3.13
0.63Conceded / Match0.63
3Clean Sheets4

radarTeam Profile

France
Italy
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
38Attack38
shield
44Defense53
swap_horiz
24Possession24
gps_fixed
50Efficiency50
auto_fix_high
0Creativity0
gavel
81Discipline81

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

24Goals Scored25
5Goals Conceded5
3Clean Sheets4
3Penalty Goals5

Statistical Comparison

FranceMetricItaly
2
Goals
4
2
Assists
1
6.9
Average Ratings
6.7
26
Average Age
26.1
183.3
Average Height (cm)
184.6
1.5
Shots pg
1.8
52%
Aerial Duel Success
68%
1.4
Dribbles pg
1.2
2
Tackles pg
1.7

history Recent Form

FranceFrance
2.4 GPG
W
W
L
L
W
ItalyItaly
2.2 GPG
W
L
W
W
D

group Head to Head

PL17 Nov 2024
Italy
1-3
France
PL6 Sept 2024
France
1-3
Italy
PL1 Jun 2018
France
3-1
Italy
PL1 Sept 2016
Italy
1-3
France
PL9 Jul 2006
Italy
1-1
France
80%
Over 2.5 Goals
100%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
100%
5 / 5 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
80%
4 / 5 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
80%
4 / 5 matches
Both Teams to Score
100%
5 / 5 matches
France CS
0%
Clean Sheets
Italy CS
0%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

17 Nov 2024
Italy
1 - 3
France
6 Sept 2024
France
1 - 3
Italy
1 Jun 2018
France
3 - 1
Italy
1 Sept 2016
Italy
1 - 3
France
9 Jul 2006
Italy
1 - 1
France

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
France
2.40
Form (Overall)
Italy
2.20

France is +9% better in terms of Points Per Game

Belgium
0 - 1
France
Turkey
0 - 1
France
France
4 - 6
England
France
0 - 2
Spain
France
2 - 0
Morocco
Turkey
1 - 4
Italy
Italy
0 - 2
Belgium
Greece
0 - 1
Italy
Luxembourg
0 - 1
Italy
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 - 1
Italy

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