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Hamburger SV vs Mainz Prediction & Tips | Bundesliga | FootballTips.app

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV

Home
Full Time
0 - 5
HT: 0 - 2
Sunday 6 September
Mainz

Mainz

Away
Hamburger SVTimelineMainz
1st Half
Becker S.Assist: Sano K.
sports_soccer
19'
Caci A.
31'
El Ouahdi Z.
36'
Mwene P. (Becker S.)
sports_soccer
41'
2nd Half
Vieira F.Out: Nadir B.
sync_alt
46'
Daka P.Out: Adeline M.
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46'
Nandja S.Out: Torunarigha J.
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46'
Tietz P. (Becker S.)
sports_soccer
48'
Stange O.Out: Moffi T.
sync_alt
64'
Konigsdorffer R.Out: Becker S.
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68'
da Costa D.Out: Caci A.
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81'
Tietz P. (Lee Jae-Sung)
sports_soccer
83'
Lemke L.Out: Wolfe D.
sync_alt
84'
Mwene P.
85'
Nakuzola R.Out: Posch S.
sync_alt
88'
Ruoppi O.Out: Lee Jae-Sung
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88'
Maloney L.Out: Sano K.
sync_alt
88'
Konigsdorffer R. (Mwene P.)
sports_soccer
90+2'
Becker S.
90+4'

Top stats

0.19Expected goals (xG)3.06
54%Ball possession46%
8Total shots17
1Shots on target8
0Big chances5
4Corner kicks5
83% (348/421)Passes77% (271/352)
1Yellow cards3

Shots

0.19Expected goals (xG)3.06
0.05xG on target (xGOT)2.72
8Total shots17
1Shots on target8
2Shots off target7
5Blocked shots2
3Shots inside the box14
5Shots outside the box3
0Hit the woodwork0

Attack

0Big chances5
4Corner kicks5
13Touches in opposition box43
0Accurate through passes1
2Offsides1
19Free kicks14

Passes

83% (348/421)Passes77% (271/352)
50% (21/42)Long passes40% (23/58)
57% (52/91)Passes in final third67% (70/104)
23% (3/13)Crosses36% (4/11)
0.54Expected assists (xA)2.21
16Throw ins18

Defense

14Fouls19
50% (6/12)Tackles75% (9/12)
45Duels won60
24Clearances23
9Interceptions12
1Errors leading to shot0
1Errors leading to goal0

Goalkeeping

3Goalkeeper saves1
2.72xGOT faced0.05
-2.28Goals prevented0.05
10Goal kicks5
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
12.80
X3.60
22.44

Recommended Bet

Away Win
Odds: 2.40Stake: Medium (7/10)
72
Opp. Value

Key Factors

League Rank: Home #16 vs Away #11
Season: Home 1.70 PPG vs Away 2.60 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 0.00 PPG vs Away 1.00 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 2.00 GPG vs Away 6.00 GPG

donut_small Win Probabilities

28%
25%
47%
Hamburger SV
Draw
Mainz
payments

Value Comparison

OutcomeMarket OddsTrue Odds (AI)Value
Over 2.5 Goals1.741.70+2.3%
Hamburger SV Win2.703.56-24.1%
Draw3.504.07-14.0%
Mainz 05 Win2.402.11+13.6%
BTTS - Yes1.531.78-14.1%

Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.

Match Preview

Hamburg were unable to take advantage of Samuele Inacio's 77th-minute red card last weekend as Merlin Polzin's side suffered a 2-0 away defeat against Borussia Dortmund. HSV will expect to get their Bundesliga account up and running at the Volksparkstadion on Sunday.

Mainz 05 travel to the north coast looking to build on a goalless draw against newly promoted Paderborn on the opening weekend of the season. Urs Fischer's side attempted 21 shots in that game, offering some optimism about Die Nullfünfer's attacking output.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Hamburger SV

Starting 11
-Daniel Heuer Fernandes
GK6.76
-Jordan Torunarigha
DC5.88
-Sebastiaan Bornauw
DC6.37
-Nicolás Capaldo
DC6.45
-Louis Lemke
DML6.23
-Albert Sambi Lokonga
MC6.42
-Nicolai Remberg
MC6.29
-Zakaria El Ouahdi
DMR
-Albert Grønbæk
AMC6.49
-Fábio Vieira
AMC
-Patson Daka
FW6.33

Mainz

Starting 11
-Robin Zentner
GK6.70
-Kacper Potulski
DC6.26
-Fabio Gruber
DC7.35
-Danny da Costa
DC7.56
-Phillipp Mwene
DML6.50
-Nadiem Amiri
MC7.71
-Kaishu Sano
MC7.06
-Lee Jae-Sung
MC6.63
-Anthony Caci
DMR7.25
-Sheraldo Becker
FW6.06
-Phillip Tietz
FW6.78
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 1 matches
Hamburger SVvsMainz
0.00Goals / Match0.00
2.00Conceded / Match0.00
0Clean Sheets1
3.00Shots on Target / Match4.00
44.0%Possession %51.0%
80.9%Pass Accuracy %83.5%

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

2Goals Conceded0
0Clean Sheets1
2Big Chances2
2Big Chances Missed2

gps_fixedShooting

8Total Shots21
3Shots on Target4

swap_horizPassing & Possession

44.0%Avg Possession51.0%
419Total Passes461
80.9%Pass Accuracy83.5%

shieldDefending

13Tackles16
13Interceptions12
5Saves0
41.8%Duels Won49.5%

gavelDiscipline

19Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

analyticsOther

1Corners11
6Successful Dribbles4
6.53Avg Rating7.94

Statistical Comparison

Hamburger SVMetricMainz
0
Goals
0
0
Assists
0
6.2
Average Ratings
6.8
26
Average Age
28.6
181.7
Average Height (cm)
184
1.6
Shots pg
2.3
39%
Aerial Duel Success
46%
1.2
Dribbles pg
2
1.8
Tackles pg
2.2

history Recent Form

Hamburger SVHamburger SV
1.7 GPG
L
MainzMainz
2.6 GPG
D

group Head to Head

PL20 Feb 2026
Mainz 05
1-1
Hamburger SV
PL5 Oct 2025
Hamburger SV
4-0
Mainz 05
PL3 Mar 2018
Hamburger SV
0-0
Mainz 05
PL14 Oct 2017
Mainz 05
3-2
Hamburger SV
PL7 May 2017
Hamburger SV
0-0
Mainz 05
50%
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
59%
13 / 22 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
11 / 22 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
36%
8 / 22 matches
Both Teams to Score
55%
12 / 22 matches
Hamburger SV CS
41%
Clean Sheets
Mainz CS
32%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

20 Feb 2026
Mainz 05
1 - 1
Hamburger SV
5 Oct 2025
Hamburger SV
4 - 0
Mainz 05
3 Mar 2018
Hamburger SV
0 - 0
Mainz 05
14 Oct 2017
Mainz 05
3 - 2
Hamburger SV
7 May 2017
Hamburger SV
0 - 0
Mainz 05
17 Dec 2016
Mainz 05
3 - 1
Hamburger SV
30 Apr 2016
Mainz 05
0 - 0
Hamburger SV
5 Dec 2015
Hamburger SV
1 - 3
Mainz 05
3 May 2015
Mainz 05
1 - 2
Hamburger SV
7 Dec 2014
Hamburger SV
2 - 1
Mainz 05
10 May 2014
Mainz 05
3 - 2
Hamburger SV
21 Dec 2013
Hamburger SV
2 - 3
Mainz 05

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Hamburger SV
1.70
Form (Overall)
Mainz
2.60

Mainz is +53% better in terms of Points Per Game

Borussia Dortmund
2 - 0
Hamburger SV
Mainz 05
0 - 0
Paderborn

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Hamburger SV vs Mainz Prediction & Tips | Bundesliga | FootballTips.app