Italy vs Belgium Prediction & Tips | UEFA Nations League - League A | FootballTips.app

Italy

Italy

Home
Full Time
0 - 2
HT: 0 - 1
Friday 25 September
Belgium

Belgium

Away
ItalyTimelineBelgium
1st Half
Godts M.Assist: De Bruyne K.
sports_soccer
20'
Raskin N.
25'
Moreira D.
29'
2nd Half
Vanaken H.Out: De Bruyne K.
sync_alt
58'
Lukebakio D.Out: Moreira D.
sync_alt
58'
Mancini G.
63'
Scalvini G.Out: Coppola D.
sync_alt
65'
Frattesi D.Out: Romano A.
sync_alt
65'
Maldini D.Out: Esposito F.
sync_alt
65'
Lukebakio D. (De Ketelaere C.)
sports_soccer
69'
Lavia R.Out: Raskin N.
sync_alt
74'
Lavia R.
80'
Zoma M. A.Out: Cambiaghi N.
sync_alt
80'
Doumbia I.Out: Barella N.
sync_alt
80'
Fernandez-Pardo M.Out: Godts M.
sync_alt
83'
Lukaku R.Out: De Ketelaere C.
sync_alt
83'
Fernandez-Pardo M.
89'
Maldini D.
90+1'
Donnarumma G.
90+4'
Lukaku R.
90+4'
No statistics available for this match
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Low Confidence
12.19
X3.51
23.08

Recommended Bet

cancel
Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.80Stake: High (8/10)
80
Opp. Value

Key Factors

Season: Home 2.50 PPG vs Away 2.10 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 2.30 PPG vs Away 1.90 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 2.75 GPG vs Away 3.00 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.00 conc vs Away 1.17 conc

donut_small Win Probabilities

31%
22%
47%
Italy
Draw
Belgium
payments

Value Comparison

OutcomeMarket OddsTrue Odds (AI)Value
Over 2.5 Goals1.801.66+8.6%
Under 2.5 Goals2.032.52-19.5%
Italy Win2.553.27-22.1%
Draw3.404.48-24.0%
Belgium Win3.002.80+7.0%
BTTS - Yes1.621.70-4.7%
BTTS - No2.172.43-10.6%

Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Italy

Starting 11
-Gianluigi Donnarumma
GK
-Riccardo Calafiori
DL
-Alessandro Bastoni
DC
-Gianluca Mancini
DC
-Michael Kayode
DR
-Sandro Tonali
MC
-Samuele Ricci
MC
-Nicolò Barella
MC
-Giacomo Raspadori
FWL
-Francesco Pio Esposito
FW
-Nicolò Zaniolo
FWR

Belgium

Starting 11
-Senne Lammens
GK
-Maxim De Cuyper
DL
-Zeno Debast
DC
-Koni De Winter
DC
-Timothy Castagne
DR
-Roméo Lavia
DMC
-Youri Tielemans
DMC
-Mika Godts
AML
-Kevin De Bruyne
AMC
-Dodi Lukébakio
AMR
-Charles De Ketelaere
FW
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

Match Preview

Italy head into the Nations League fresh from the disappointment of missing the 2026 World Cup following a penalty shootout defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina in qualifying. Since then, the Azzurri have sealed narrow 1-0 wins against Luxembourg and Greece.

Belgium topped their group at the World Cup earlier this summer and eventually reached the quarter-finals after beating Senegal and the USA, only to lose to eventual champions Spain 2-1. Mark van Bommel's side have lost just one of their last 19 international matches.

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 8 / 6 matches
ItalyvsBelgium
3.13Goals / Match2.33
0.63Conceded / Match1.17
4Clean Sheets1

radarTeam Profile

Italy
Belgium
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
38Attack82
shield
53Defense41
swap_horiz
24Possession70
gps_fixed
50Efficiency71
auto_fix_high
0Creativity85
gavel
81Discipline49

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

25Goals Scored14
5Goals Conceded7
4Clean Sheets1
5Penalty Goals1

history Recent Form

ItalyItaly
2.5 GPG
W
W
D
W
L
BelgiumBelgium
2.1 GPG
L
W
W
W
D

group Head to Head

PL14 Nov 2024
Belgium
0-1
Italy
PL10 Oct 2024
Italy
2-2
Belgium
PL10 Oct 2021
Italy
2-1
Belgium
PL2 Jul 2021
Belgium
1-2
Italy
PL13 Jun 2016
Belgium
0-2
Italy
67%
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
83%
5 / 6 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
4 / 6 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
2 / 6 matches
Both Teams to Score
67%
4 / 6 matches
Italy CS
33%
Clean Sheets
Belgium CS
0%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

14 Nov 2024
Belgium
0 - 1
Italy
10 Oct 2024
Italy
2 - 2
Belgium
10 Oct 2021
Italy
2 - 1
Belgium
2 Jul 2021
Belgium
1 - 2
Italy
13 Jun 2016
Belgium
0 - 2
Italy
13 Nov 2015
Belgium
3 - 1
Italy

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Italy
2.50
Form (Overall)
Belgium
2.10

Italy is +19% better in terms of Points Per Game

Greece
0 - 1
Italy
Luxembourg
0 - 1
Italy
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 - 1
Italy
Italy
2 - 0
Northern Ireland
Italy
1 - 4
Norway
Spain
2 - 1
Belgium
USMNT
1 - 4
Belgium
Belgium
3 - 2
Senegal
New Zealand
1 - 5
Belgium
Belgium
0 - 0
Iran

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