Italy vs Belgium Prediction & Tips | UEFA Nations League - League A | FootballTips.app

Italy

Italy

Home
Full Time
0 - 2
HT: 0 - 1
Friday 25 September
Belgium

Belgium

Away
ItalyTimelineBelgium
1st Half
Godts M.Assist: De Bruyne K.
sports_soccer
20'
Raskin N.
25'
Moreira D.
29'
2nd Half
Vanaken H.Out: De Bruyne K.
sync_alt
58'
Lukebakio D.Out: Moreira D.
sync_alt
58'
Mancini G.
63'
Scalvini G.Out: Coppola D.
sync_alt
65'
Frattesi D.Out: Romano A.
sync_alt
65'
Maldini D.Out: Esposito F.
sync_alt
65'
Lukebakio D. (De Ketelaere C.)
sports_soccer
69'
Lavia R.Out: Raskin N.
sync_alt
74'
Lavia R.
80'
Zoma M. A.Out: Cambiaghi N.
sync_alt
80'
Doumbia I.Out: Barella N.
sync_alt
80'
Fernandez-Pardo M.Out: Godts M.
sync_alt
83'
Lukaku R.Out: De Ketelaere C.
sync_alt
83'
Fernandez-Pardo M.
89'
Maldini D.
90+1'
Donnarumma G.
90+4'
Lukaku R.
90+4'
No statistics available for this match
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Low Confidence
12.19
X3.51
23.08

Recommended Bet

cancel
Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.80Stake: High (8/10)
80
Opp. Value

Key Factors

Season: Home 2.50 PPG vs Away 2.10 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 2.30 PPG vs Away 1.90 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 2.75 GPG vs Away 3.00 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.00 conc vs Away 1.17 conc

donut_small Win Probabilities

31%
22%
47%
Italy
Draw
Belgium
payments

Value Comparison

OutcomeMarket OddsTrue Odds (AI)Value
Over 2.5 Goals1.801.66+8.6%
Under 2.5 Goals2.032.52-19.5%
Italy Win2.553.27-22.1%
Draw3.404.48-24.0%
Belgium Win3.002.80+7.0%
BTTS - Yes1.621.70-4.7%
BTTS - No2.172.43-10.6%

Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.

Match Preview

Italy head into the Nations League fresh from the disappointment of missing the 2026 World Cup following a penalty shootout defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina in qualifying. Since then, the Azzurri have sealed narrow 1-0 wins against Luxembourg and Greece.

Belgium topped their group at the World Cup earlier this summer and eventually reached the quarter-finals after beating Senegal and the USA, only to lose to eventual champions Spain 2-1. Mark van Bommel's side have lost just one of their last 19 international matches.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Italy

Starting 11
-Gianluigi Donnarumma
GK
-Riccardo Calafiori
DL
-Alessandro Bastoni
DC
-Gianluca Mancini
DC
-Michael Kayode
DR
-Sandro Tonali
MC
-Samuele Ricci
MC
-Nicolò Barella
MC
-Giacomo Raspadori
FWL
-Francesco Pio Esposito
FW
-Nicolò Zaniolo
FWR

Belgium

Starting 11
-Senne Lammens
GK
-Maxim De Cuyper
DL
-Zeno Debast
DC
-Koni De Winter
DC
-Timothy Castagne
DR
-Roméo Lavia
DMC
-Youri Tielemans
DMC
-Mika Godts
AML
-Kevin De Bruyne
AMC
-Dodi Lukébakio
AMR
-Charles De Ketelaere
FW
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 8 / 6 matches
ItalyvsBelgium
3.13Goals / Match2.33
0.63Conceded / Match1.17
4Clean Sheets1

radarTeam Profile

Italy
Belgium
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
38Attack82
shield
53Defense41
swap_horiz
24Possession70
gps_fixed
50Efficiency71
auto_fix_high
0Creativity85
gavel
81Discipline49

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

25Goals Scored14
5Goals Conceded7
4Clean Sheets1
5Penalty Goals1

history Recent Form

ItalyItaly
2.5 GPG
W
W
D
W
L
BelgiumBelgium
2.1 GPG
L
W
W
W
D

group Head to Head

PL14 Nov 2024
Belgium
0-1
Italy
PL10 Oct 2024
Italy
2-2
Belgium
PL10 Oct 2021
Italy
2-1
Belgium
PL2 Jul 2021
Belgium
1-2
Italy
PL13 Jun 2016
Belgium
0-2
Italy
67%
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
83%
5 / 6 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
4 / 6 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
2 / 6 matches
Both Teams to Score
67%
4 / 6 matches
Italy CS
33%
Clean Sheets
Belgium CS
0%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

14 Nov 2024
Belgium
0 - 1
Italy
10 Oct 2024
Italy
2 - 2
Belgium
10 Oct 2021
Italy
2 - 1
Belgium
2 Jul 2021
Belgium
1 - 2
Italy
13 Jun 2016
Belgium
0 - 2
Italy
13 Nov 2015
Belgium
3 - 1
Italy

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Italy
2.50
Form (Overall)
Belgium
2.10

Italy is +19% better in terms of Points Per Game

Greece
0 - 1
Italy
Luxembourg
0 - 1
Italy
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 - 1
Italy
Italy
2 - 0
Northern Ireland
Italy
1 - 4
Norway
Spain
2 - 1
Belgium
USMNT
1 - 4
Belgium
Belgium
3 - 2
Senegal
New Zealand
1 - 5
Belgium
Belgium
0 - 0
Iran

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