Italy vs Turkey Prediction & Tips | UEFA Nations League - League A | FootballTips.app
Italy
HomeFull Time
3 - 1
HT: 1 - 0
Monday 5 October
Turkey
Awayauto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Medium Model Confidence
11.43
X4.80
26.35
Recommended Bet
No tip
No qualifying edge — see Value Comparison below
Key Factors
Season: Home 2.00 PPG vs Away 1.50 PPG
Recent Form: Home 2.00 PPG vs Away 1.50 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.50 GPG vs Away 0.75 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.50 conc vs Away 1.50 conc
donut_small Win Probabilities
46%
28%
26%
Italy
Draw
Turkey
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.53 | 1.69 | 1.61 | -9.3% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.50 | 2.46 | 2.63 | +1.8% |
| Italy Win | 1.36 | 2.17 | 1.45 | -37.2% |
| Draw | 5.10 | 3.63 | 5.43 | +40.6% |
| Turkey Win | 7.50 | 6.45 | 7.99 | +16.4% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.78 | 1.77 | 1.87 | +0.3% |
| BTTS - No | 2.05 | 2.29 | 2.15 | -10.5% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Probable lineups · avg. SofaScore & WhoScored rating when both present
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Italy
Starting 11
1Gianluigi Donnarumma
G7.50
2Michael Kayode
D7.65
23Gianluca Mancini
D6.50
6Alessandro Bastoni
D7.85
3Matteo Ruggeri
D6.90
18Nicolò Barella
M7.10
4Alessandro Romano
M6.65
15Issa Doumbia
M6.60
7Nicolò Cambiaghi
F6.90
11Gianluca Scamacca
F6.50
21Antonio Vergara
F6.90
Turkey
Starting 11
1Uğurcan Çakır
G6.55
15Ozan Kabak
D5.80
3Merih Demiral
D6.37
2Zeki Çelik
D6.43
20Ferdi Kadıoğlu
D6.60
5Salih Özcan
M6.60
16İsmail Yüksek
M7.00
19Yunus Akgün
M6.90
18Oğuz Aydın
M6.73
7Kerem Aktürkoğlu
F6.33
9Deniz Gül
F6.55
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
Team comparison
Probable lineups context · sofascore
ItalyStatTurkey
3Matches (competition)3
1.67Goals per game0.33
1.33Goals conceded per game2.67
1.83xG per game1.83
5.33Shots on target per game4.67
6.33Shots on target against per game7.33
45.67Average possession %45.33
0Clean sheets0
7.5Average Sofascore rating6.95
3.33Big chances per game2.33
history Recent Form
ItalyTurkeyL
L
L
W
L
group Head to Head
PL28 Sept 2026
1-4
PL4 Jun 2024
0-0
PL29 Mar 2022
2-3
PL11 Jun 2021
0-3
75%
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
75%
3 / 4 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
75%
3 / 4 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
2 / 4 matches
Both Teams to Score
50%
2 / 4 matches
Italy CS
50%
Clean Sheets
Turkey CS
25%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
28 Sept 2026
Turkey
1 - 4
Italy
4 Jun 2024
Italy
0 - 0
Turkey
29 Mar 2022
Turkey
2 - 3
Italy
11 Jun 2021
Turkey
0 - 3
Italy
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
2.00
Form (Overall)
1.50
Italy is +33% better in terms of Points Per Game
Belgium
3 - 0
Turkey
Turkey
1 - 4
Italy
Turkey
0 - 1
France
Turkey
3 - 2
USMNT
Turkey
0 - 1
Paraguay
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