Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Prediction & Tips | UEFA Nations League - League C | FootballTips.app
Luxembourg
HomeFull Time
0 - 2
HT: 0 - 2
Tuesday 6 October
Bulgaria
Awayauto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Model Confidence
12.09
X3.07
23.81
Recommended Bet
No tip
No qualifying edge — see Value Comparison below
72
Best near-miss
Key Factors
Season: Home 1.20 PPG vs Away 1.10 PPG
Recent Form: Home 1.20 PPG vs Away 1.10 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 0.75 GPG vs Away 2.17 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.50 conc vs Away 2.17 conc
donut_small Win Probabilities
35%
26%
39%
Luxembourg
Draw
Bulgaria
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.37 | 1.88 | 2.56 | +26.2% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.52 | 2.14 | 1.64 | -29.0% |
| Luxembourg Win | 2.09 | 2.89 | 2.26 | -27.8% |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.84 | 3.47 | -16.6% |
| Bulgaria Win | 3.42 | 3.34 | 3.71 | +2.4% |
| BTTS - Yes | 2.05 | 1.89 | 2.22 | +8.7% |
| BTTS - No | 1.68 | 2.13 | 1.82 | -21.1% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Luxembourg
Starting 11
7Aiman Dardari
LW6.59
9Jayson Videira Pereira
CF6.45
6Joao Tomas de Sousa Moreira Cruz
CM6.47
8Enzo de Pina Duarte dos Santos
CM6.63
11Vincent Thill
CAM6.68
15Omar Natami
CAM6.31
3Enes Mahmutovic
CB6.56
4Florian Bohnert
RB6.41
5Vahid Selimovic
CB6.72
13Dirk Carlson
CB6.66
1Anthony Moris
GK6.99
Substitutes
17Hamza Kadamani
6.19
20Timothe Rupil
CM6.63
16Leandro Barreiro
CM7.25
19Mathias Olesen
CDM6.41
8Fernandes Goncalves Miguel
CM
21Sébastien Thill
CAM6.63
2Eldin Dzogovic
RB6.19
-Eric Veiga
CB
-Sofiane Ikene
CB
22Marvin Martins
CB6.57
-Tiago Pereira Cardoso
GK
-Tim Kips
GK
Bulgaria
Starting 11
9Atanas Iliev
CF5.61
11Georgi Rusev
RW6.67
20Lukas Petkov
RW6.68
4Ilia Gruev
CDM6.87
8Andrian Kraev
CM6.54
14Asen Chandarov
CM6.79
5Kristian Traychev Dimitrov
CB7.06
13Stefan Velkov
CB6.74
19Ivan Turitsov
RB6.74
21Dimitar Velkovski
LB6.93
1Daniel Naumov
GK6.92
Substitutes
10Zdravko Minchev Dimitrov
LW6.68
16Marin Plamenov Petkov
RW6.98
17Vladimir Nikolaev Nikolov
CF6.45
18Kristiyan Balov
LW6.78
2Yoan Stoyanov
CAM7.06
7Petko Hristov Panayotov
CM6.81
22Kristiyan Stoyanov Stoyanov
CM6.65
-Andrea Hristov
CB
6Emil Tsenov
CB6.45
-Hristiyan Petrov
CB
-Dimitar Mitov
GK
-Aleks Bozhev
GK
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
Match Preview
Luxembourg face Bulgaria in UEFA Nations League League C Group 4 at Stade de Luxembourg on 6 October 2026 GMT.
Luxembourg were beaten 1-0 by Estonia in their latest tournament match, while Bulgaria suffered a 3-0 defeat to Iceland.
The earlier group meeting gives Luxembourg a useful reference point, as they won 2-1 away to Bulgaria.
Luxembourg have won 3 of their last 6 matches and hold a 50% home win rate in the UEFA Nations League.
Bulgaria have lost 4 of their last 6 matches, with 5 defeats from their last 5 away games across all leagues adding to their concerns.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals to be scored.
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 6 matchesLuxembourgvsBulgaria
0.17Goals / Match0.50
2.17Conceded / Match3.17
0Clean Sheets0
2.33Shots on Target / Match1.50
43.5%Possession %27.0%
79.3%Pass Accuracy %74.0%
radarTeam Profile
Luxembourg
Bulgaria
sports_soccer
3Attack0
shield
29Defense29
swap_horiz
37Possession15
gps_fixed
26Efficiency61
auto_fix_high
8Creativity9
gavel
9Discipline69
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
1Goals Scored3
13Goals Conceded19
8Big Chances6
8Big Chances Missed4
gps_fixedShooting
45Total Shots27
14Shots on Target9
swap_horizPassing & Possession
43.5%Avg Possession27.0%
2,227Total Passes1,605
79.3%Pass Accuracy74.0%
shieldDefending
73Tackles95
74Interceptions53
16Saves28
48.4%Duels Won49.6%
gavelDiscipline
76Fouls60
20Yellow Cards8
2Red Cards0
4Offsides13
analyticsOther
16Corners13
35Successful Dribbles35
1Errors Leading to Goal4
6.57Avg Rating6.52
League Standings Context
For Luxembourg
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
For Bulgaria
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Advanced Stats (Avg per match)
26.2/ 67.8
Dangerous Attacks
22.3/ 68.3
34.0%
Shots on Target
33.0%
6.2
Total Shots
6.6
50.0%
Possession
38.0%
Team Performance (Avg)
0.7
Goals Scored / Match
0.6
1.6
Goals Conceded / Match
2.5
Head-to-Head Summary
1
Luxembourg Wins
17%
2
Draws
33%
3
Bulgaria Wins
50%
Total H2H Matches: 6
Recent Form Stats
| Market | Luxembourg | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73%8/11 | 91%10/11 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45%5/11 | 82%9/11 |
| Both Teams to Score | 18%2/11 | 45%5/11 |
* Based on last 11 matches
Past Matches
Home Games: Luxembourg
Luxembourg
0 - 3
Luxembourg
3 - 0
Away Games: Bulgaria
Iceland
3 - 0
Türkiye
2 - 0
history Recent Form
LuxembourgBulgariagroup Head to Head
PL26 Sept 2026
1-2
PL15 Nov 2024
0-1
PL12 Oct 2024
0-0
PL20 Nov 2022
0-0
PL10 Oct 2017
1-1
33%
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
3 / 6 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
2 / 6 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
17%
1 / 6 matches
Both Teams to Score
50%
3 / 6 matches
Luxembourg CS
33%
Clean Sheets
Bulgaria CS
50%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
26 Sept 2026
Bulgaria
1 - 2
Luxembourg
15 Nov 2024
Luxembourg
0 - 1
Bulgaria
12 Oct 2024
Bulgaria
0 - 0
Luxembourg
20 Nov 2022
Luxembourg
0 - 0
Bulgaria
10 Oct 2017
Luxembourg
1 - 1
Bulgaria
6 Sept 2016
Bulgaria
4 - 3
Luxembourg
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
1.20
Form (Overall)
1.10
Luxembourg is +9% better in terms of Points Per Game
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