Mainz vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Tips | Bundesliga | FootballTips.app

Mainz

Mainz

Home
Full Time
1 - 1
HT: 1 - 0
Friday 20 February
Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV

Away
MainzTimelineHamburger SV
1st Half
Silas
12'
Muheim M.
34'
Amiri N. (da Costa D.)
sports_soccer
42'
Kohr D.
45+1'
2nd Half
Becker S.Out: Silas
sync_alt
46'
Remberg N.
58'
Veratschnig N.Out: Kohr D.
sync_alt
58'
Vieira F.
sports_soccer
64'
Poulsen Y.Out: Glatzel R.
sync_alt
65'
Mikelbrencis W.Out: Jatta B.
sync_alt
65'
Philippe R.Out: Otele P.
sync_alt
76'
Nebel P.Out: Lee Jae-Sung
sync_alt
86'
Elfadli D.Out: Konigsdorffer R.
sync_alt
87'
Gocholeishvili G.Out: Muheim M.
sync_alt
88'
Potulski K.
90'

Top stats

1.53Expected goals (xG)0.70
45%Ball possession55%
17Total shots14
3Shots on target5
2Big chances1
7Corner kicks2
74% (232/315)Passes83% (337/406)
3Yellow cards2

Shots

1.53Expected goals (xG)0.70
1.37xG on target (xGOT)1.07
17Total shots14
3Shots on target5
9Shots off target7
5Blocked shots2
14Shots inside the box5
3Shots outside the box9
0Hit the woodwork0

Attack

2Big chances1
7Corner kicks2
36Touches in opposition box11
0Accurate through passes0
2Offsides1
13Free kicks16

Passes

74% (232/315)Passes83% (337/406)
40% (24/60)Long passes53% (25/47)
57% (62/109)Passes in final third59% (61/103)
31% (9/29)Crosses15% (2/13)
0.98Expected assists (xA)0.56
14Throw ins14

Defense

16Fouls13
42% (8/19)Tackles92% (11/12)
58Duels won55
20Clearances42
6Interceptions7
0Errors leading to shot0
0Errors leading to goal0

Goalkeeping

4Goalkeeper saves2
1.07xGOT faced1.37
0.07Goals prevented0.37
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
12.05
X3.42
24.03

Recommended Bet

check_circle
Draw
Stake: Medium (8/10)
76
Opp. Value

Key Factors

League Rank: Home #14 vs Away #9
Season: Home 0.95 PPG vs Away 1.19 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.80 PPG vs Away 2.10 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.09 GPG vs Away 0.60 GPG

donut_small Win Probabilities

28%
43%
29%
Mainz
Draw
Hamburger SV

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Mainz

Starting 11
-Daniel Batz
GK6.93
-Dominik Kohr
DC6.54
-Stefan Posch
DC6.79
-Kacper Potulski
DC6.97
-Phillipp Mwene
DML6.30
-Lee Jae-Sung
MC6.63
-Kaishu Sano
MC6.90
-Nadiem Amiri
MC7.08
-Danny da Costa
DMR6.64
-Phillip Tietz
FW6.93
-Silas Katompa Mvumpa
FW6.49

Hamburger SV

Starting 11
-Daniel Heuer Fernandes
GK6.58
-Daniel Elfadli
DC6.46
-Jordan Torunarigha
DC6.90
-Nicolás Capaldo
DC6.75
-Miro Muheim
DML6.96
-Nicolai Remberg
MC6.86
-Fábio Vieira
MC6.68
-Bakery Jatta
DMR6.55
-Philip Otele
FWL7.24
-Robert Glatzel
FW6.23
-Ransford Königsdörffer
FWR6.40
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

Match Preview

Mainz will face Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga clash at MEWA ARENA on February 20, 2026 GMT.

The host, Mainz, sits in 14th place in the league standings, while Hamburger SV is positioned 9th, with a significant difference in points – Mainz with 21 and Hamburger SV with 25.

Mainz has been dominant in their home matches, winning 67% of their last six games at MEWA ARENA.

On the other hand, Hamburger SV has been drawing quite frequently, with 50% of their last six matches ending in a draw.

When these two teams have met in the past, they have shared the points in 50% of their last six head-to-head encounters.

With the statistical data at hand, the matchup between Mainz and Hamburger SV is set to be a closely contested affair, with the model prediction suggesting Under 2.5 goals to be scored.

Mainz 05 were no match for title contenders Borussia Dortmund last weekend, conceding three times before the break in a 4-0 away defeat to Niko Kovac's side. Friday's hosts had won three straight league games before that defeat and remain four points clear of 17th-placed St. Pauli.

Hamburg, meanwhile, head into gameweek 23 in the top half of the Bundesliga standings after securing back-to-back league wins against FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin. Away form remains a concern for Merlin Polzin's side, though, after winning just one of their first 10 league games on the road this season.

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 22 / 21 matches
MainzvsHamburger SV
1.14Goals / Match1.14
1.68Conceded / Match1.48
2Clean Sheets6
3.64Shots on Target / Match4.81
44.7%Possession %47.0%
74.5%Pass Accuracy %82.1%

radarTeam Profile

Mainz
Hamburger SV
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
36Attack35
shield
39Defense46
swap_horiz
30Possession51
gps_fixed
58Efficiency56
auto_fix_high
30Creativity33
gavel
29Discipline22

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

25Goals Scored24
37Goals Conceded31
2Clean Sheets6
61Big Chances40
40Big Chances Missed27
7Penalty Goals1

gps_fixedShooting

245Total Shots276
80Shots on Target101

swap_horizPassing & Possession

44.7%Avg Possession47.0%
8,256Total Passes8,683
74.5%Pass Accuracy82.1%

shieldDefending

324Tackles300
234Interceptions173
77Saves65
48.5%Duels Won52.0%

gavelDiscipline

250Fouls262
52Yellow Cards47
5Red Cards6
52Offsides46

analyticsOther

113Corners83
124Successful Dribbles157
2Errors Leading to Goal5
6.74Avg Rating6.79

Statistical Comparison

MainzMetricHamburger SV
25
Goals
24
14
Assists
17
6.5
Average Ratings
6.5
29
Average Age
27.5
184.6
Average Height (cm)
183.6
0.8
Shots pg
0.8
49%
Aerial Duel Success
52%
0.6
Dribbles pg
0.6
1.2
Tackles pg
1.4

League Standings Context

For Mainz

PosTeamPWDLPts
13Borussia M'gladbach22571022
14Mainz22561121
15Wolfsburg22551220

For Hamburger SV

PosTeamPWDLPts
8Freiburg2286830
9Hamburger SV2167825
10Union Berlin2267925

Advanced Stats (Avg per match)

51.6/ 104.8
Dangerous Attacks
44.2/ 88.8
32.0%
Shots on Target
37.0%
11.9
Total Shots
13.8
47.0%
Possession
49.0%

Team Performance (Avg)

1.2
Goals Scored / Match
1.1
1.4
Goals Conceded / Match
1.3

Head-to-Head Summary

2
Mainz Wins
33%
3
Draws
50%
1
Hamburger SV Wins
17%
Total H2H Matches: 6

Recent Form Stats

MarketMainzHamburger SV
Over 1.5 Goals
72%23/32
50%16/32
Over 2.5 Goals
47%15/32
34%11/32
Both Teams to Score
50%16/32
38%12/32
* Based on last 32 matches

Past Matches

Last 6: Mainz

De1
Borussia Dortmund
4 - 0
Mainz
De1
Mainz
2 - 0
Augsburg
De1
RB Leipzig
1 - 2
Mainz
De1
Mainz
3 - 1
Wolfsburg
De1
Köln
2 - 1
Mainz
De1
Mainz
2 - 1
Heidenheim

Home Games: Mainz

De1
Mainz
2 - 0
Augsburg
De1
Mainz
3 - 1
Wolfsburg
De1
Mainz
2 - 1
Heidenheim
De1
Mainz
0 - 0
St Pauli
ECL
Mainz
2 - 0
Samsunspor
De1
Mainz
0 - 1
Borussia M'gladbach

Last 6: Hamburger SV

De1
Hamburger SV
3 - 2
Union Berlin
De1
Heidenheim
0 - 2
Hamburger SV
De1
Hamburger SV
2 - 2
Bayern Munich
De1
St Pauli
0 - 0
Hamburger SV
De1
Hamburger SV
0 - 0
Borussia M'gladbach
De1
Freiburg
2 - 1
Hamburger SV

Away Games: Hamburger SV

De1
Heidenheim
0 - 2
Hamburger SV
De1
St Pauli
0 - 0
Hamburger SV
De1
Freiburg
2 - 1
Hamburger SV
De1
Hoffenheim
4 - 1
Hamburger SV
De1
Augsburg
1 - 0
Hamburger SV
De1
Köln
4 - 1
Hamburger SV

history Recent Form

MainzMainz
0.9 GPG
L
W
W
W
L
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
1.2 GPG
W
W
D
D
D

group Head to Head

PL5 Oct 2025
Hamburger SV
4-0
Mainz 05
PL3 Mar 2018
Hamburger SV
0-0
Mainz 05
PL14 Oct 2017
Mainz 05
3-2
Hamburger SV
PL7 May 2017
Hamburger SV
0-0
Mainz 05
PL17 Dec 2016
Mainz 05
3-1
Hamburger SV
52%
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
57%
12 / 21 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
11 / 21 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
38%
8 / 21 matches
Both Teams to Score
52%
11 / 21 matches
Mainz CS
33%
Clean Sheets
Hamburger SV CS
43%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

5 Oct 2025
Hamburger SV
4 - 0
Mainz 05
3 Mar 2018
Hamburger SV
0 - 0
Mainz 05
14 Oct 2017
Mainz 05
3 - 2
Hamburger SV
7 May 2017
Hamburger SV
0 - 0
Mainz 05
17 Dec 2016
Mainz 05
3 - 1
Hamburger SV
30 Apr 2016
Mainz 05
0 - 0
Hamburger SV
5 Dec 2015
Hamburger SV
1 - 3
Mainz 05
3 May 2015
Mainz 05
1 - 2
Hamburger SV
7 Dec 2014
Hamburger SV
2 - 1
Mainz 05
10 May 2014
Mainz 05
3 - 2
Hamburger SV
21 Dec 2013
Hamburger SV
2 - 3
Mainz 05
13 Apr 2013
Mainz 05
1 - 2
Hamburger SV

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Mainz
0.95
Form (Overall)
Hamburger SV
1.19

Hamburger SV is +25% better in terms of Points Per Game

Borussia Dortmund
4 - 0
Mainz 05
Mainz 05
2 - 0
Augsburg
RB Leipzig
1 - 2
Mainz 05
Mainz 05
3 - 1
Wolfsburg
Köln
2 - 1
Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
3 - 2
Union Berlin
Heidenheim
0 - 2
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
2 - 2
Bayern München
St. Pauli
0 - 0
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
0 - 0
Borussia M'gladbach

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