Mainz vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Tips | Bundesliga | FootballTips.app
Mainz
HomeFull Time
2:3
Saturday 24 October
Werder Bremen
Awayauto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Low Model Confidence
11.74
X4.20
24.34
Recommended Bet
No tip
No qualifying edge — see Value Comparison below
47
Best near-miss
Key Factors
League Rank: Home #5 vs Away #8
Season: Home 1.67 PPG vs Away 1.50 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 0.95 PPG vs Away 1.30 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.33 GPG vs Away 1.33 GPG
donut_small Win Probabilities
47%
25%
29%
Mainz
Draw
Werder Bremen
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.47 | 1.64 | 1.59 | -10.3% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.50 | 2.56 | 2.70 | -2.5% |
| Mainz 05 Win | 1.73 | 2.14 | 1.85 | -19.2% |
| Draw | 3.78 | 4.04 | 4.04 | -6.5% |
| Werder Bremen Win | 4.40 | 4.13 | 4.71 | +6.6% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.53 | 1.72 | 1.64 | -11.1% |
| BTTS - No | 2.40 | 2.39 | 2.57 | +0.6% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Mainz
Starting 11
-Alexander Schwolow
GK6.76
-Kacper Potulski
DC6.55
-Stefan Posch
DC6.77
-Danny da Costa
DC6.88
-Phillipp Mwene
DML6.94
-Nadiem Amiri
MC6.90
-Kaishu Sano
MC7.15
-Lee Jae-Sung
MC6.75
-Anthony Caci
DMR7.29
-Sheraldo Becker
FW7.29
-Phillip Tietz
FW7.71
Werder Bremen
Starting 11
-Karl Hein
GK6.90
-Olivier Deman
DL6.92
-Marco Friedl
DC6.66
-Amos Pieper
DC6.80
-Arthur
DR6.83
-Ludovit Reis
DMC6.69
-Youri Regeer
DMC7.17
-Marco Grüll
AML7.85
-Chuki
AMC6.66
-Eren Dinkçi
AMR6.38
-Niclas Füllkrug
FW7.28
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
Match Preview
Phillip Tietz scored the only goal of the game last Saturday as Mainz 05 edged past newly promoted Schalke to clinch three points at the VELTINS-Arena. Urs Fischer's side are chasing a third win in four Bundesliga outings on Saturday.
Werder Bremen travel to the Mewa Arena looking to extend their unbeaten run to six Bundesliga matches. Die Werderaner have drawn 2-2 with Borussia Dortmund and Paderborn in their two most recent outings.
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 6 matchesMainzvsWerder Bremen
2.33Goals / Match2.00
1.67Conceded / Match2.00
3Clean Sheets0
6.00Shots on Target / Match6.83
50.7%Possession %47.3%
79.9%Pass Accuracy %83.9%
radarTeam Profile
Mainz
Werder Bremen
sports_soccer
93Attack70
shield
68Defense43
swap_horiz
45Possession53
gps_fixed
74Efficiency89
auto_fix_high
82Creativity80
gavel
39Discipline64
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
14Goals Scored12
10Goals Conceded12
3Clean Sheets0
23Big Chances19
13Big Chances Missed12
0Penalty Goals1
gps_fixedShooting
106Total Shots84
36Shots on Target41
swap_horizPassing & Possession
50.7%Avg Possession47.3%
2,671Total Passes2,855
79.9%Pass Accuracy83.9%
shieldDefending
101Tackles132
68Interceptions62
13Saves21
50.7%Duels Won53.2%
gavelDiscipline
83Fouls72
14Yellow Cards7
12Offsides13
analyticsOther
29Corners22
32Successful Dribbles39
2Errors Leading to Goal3
7.67Avg Rating7.48
Statistical Comparison
MainzMetricWerder Bremen
14
Goals
12
11
Assists
9
6.7
Average Ratings
6.6
29.5
Average Age
25.9
183.8
Average Height (cm)
182.9
1.2
Shots pg
1
53%
Aerial Duel Success
50%
0.5
Dribbles pg
0.7
1.3
Tackles pg
1.7
history Recent Form
MainzL
L
D
W
W
Werder BremenD
D
L
W
W
group Head to Head
PL15 Mar 2026
0-2
PL1 Nov 2025
1-1
PL31 Jan 2025
1-0
PL15 Sept 2024
1-2
PL3 Feb 2024
0-1
59%
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
85%
29 / 34 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
20 / 34 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
29%
10 / 34 matches
Both Teams to Score
56%
19 / 34 matches
Mainz CS
24%
Clean Sheets
Werder Bremen CS
24%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
15 Mar 2026
Werder Bremen
0 - 2
Mainz 05
1 Nov 2025
Mainz 05
1 - 1
Werder Bremen
31 Jan 2025
Werder Bremen
1 - 0
Mainz 05
15 Sept 2024
Mainz 05
1 - 2
Werder Bremen
3 Feb 2024
Mainz 05
0 - 1
Werder Bremen
2 Sept 2023
Werder Bremen
4 - 0
Mainz 05
8 Apr 2023
Mainz 05
2 - 2
Werder Bremen
15 Oct 2022
Werder Bremen
0 - 2
Mainz 05
21 Apr 2021
Werder Bremen
0 - 1
Mainz 05
19 Dec 2020
Mainz 05
0 - 1
Werder Bremen
20 Jun 2020
Mainz 05
3 - 1
Werder Bremen
17 Dec 2019
Werder Bremen
0 - 5
Mainz 05
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
0.33
Form (Overall)
0.67
Werder Bremen is +103% better in terms of Points Per Game
Mainz 05
3 - 4
Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz 05
1 - 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Mainz 05
0 - 0
Paderborn
Mainz 05
2 - 1
AFC Bournemouth
Mainz 05
4 - 0
Paris
Borussia Dortmund
2 - 2
Werder Bremen
Köln
1 - 1
Werder Bremen
Freiburg
4 - 1
Werder Bremen
LSK Hansa
0 - 3
Werder Bremen
Energie Cottbus
2 - 4
Werder Bremen
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