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Nottingham vs FC Porto Prediction & Tips | Europa League - Play Offs | FootballTips.app

Nottingham

Nottingham

Home
Full Time
1 - 0
HT: 1 - 0
Thursday 16 April
FC Porto

FC Porto

Away
NottinghamTimelineFC Porto
1st Half
Bednarek J.
8'
Gibbs-White M.Assist: Williams N.
sports_soccer
12'
Igor JesusOut: Wood Ch.
sync_alt
16'
Moffi T.
32'
Costa A.
36'
Hutchinson O.
40'
2nd Half
Moura F.Out: Zaidu
sync_alt
46'
Kiwior J.Out: Veiga G.
sync_alt
46'
Froholdt V.Out: Costa A.
sync_alt
46'
Varela A.Out: Sainz B.
sync_alt
46'
Hudson-Odoi C.Out: Hutchinson O.
sync_alt
46'
Milenkovic N.Out: Ndoye D.
sync_alt
65'
Gul D.Out: Moffi T.
sync_alt
66'
MoratoOut: Murillo
sync_alt
72'
Bakwa D.Out: Hudson-Odoi C.
sync_alt
72'
William Gomes
90'

Top stats

1.82Expected goals (xG)1.06
61%Ball possession39%
20Total shots10
5Shots on target1
1Big chances3
8Corner kicks1
90% (467/521)Passes77% (258/334)
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Shots

1.82Expected goals (xG)1.06
1.09xG on target (xGOT)0.08
20Total shots10
5Shots on target1
9Shots off target6
6Blocked shots3
11Shots inside the box4
9Shots outside the box6
1Hit the woodwork2

Attack

1Big chances3
8Corner kicks1
43Touches in opposition box13
0Accurate through passes1
2Offsides0
12Free kicks15

Passes

90% (467/521)Passes77% (258/334)
70% (30/43)Long passes45% (28/62)
86% (171/198)Passes in final third57% (50/88)
30% (6/20)Crosses17% (2/12)
1.55Expected assists (xA)0.73
9Throw ins17

Defense

16Fouls11
59% (10/17)Tackles65% (15/23)
44Duels won51
21Clearances12
7Interceptions4
0Errors leading to shot1
0Errors leading to goal1

Goalkeeping

1Goalkeeper saves4
0.08xGOT faced1.09
0.08Goals prevented0.09
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Medium Confidence
12.40
X3.10
23.26

Recommended Bet

Home Win
Stake: Low (3/10)
29
Opp. Value

Key Factors

Season: Home 1.00 PPG vs Away 2.10 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.40 PPG vs Away 2.30 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 0.40 GPG vs Away 1.80 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.00 conc vs Away 1.20 conc

donut_small Win Probabilities

37%
36%
27%
Nottingham
Draw
FC Porto

Match Preview

Nottingham Forest and FC Porto arrive at the City Ground with nothing separating them after a 1-1 draw in Portugal, where William Gomes’ early strike was quickly cancelled out by an unfortunate own goal from Martim Fernandes. From that point on, the tie settled into a finely balanced contest, one that now hinges on marginal gains in Nottingham.

Forest will point to home advantage as a decisive factor, though the reality is more complicated. They have won just one of their last 11 matches at the City Ground in all competitions (D5, L5), and have already lost three Europa League home games this season. One more defeat would see them set an unwanted record as the first English side to lose four home matches in a single European campaign.

Yet there is also precedent for belief. Forest defeated Porto 2-0 here in the league phase earlier this season, and historically, Porto have never won away against English opposition in European competition (D3, L21), a statistic that looms large heading into this second leg.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Nottingham

Starting 11
-Matz Sels
GK6.30
-Neco Williams
DL6.87
-Murillo
DC6.60
-Nikola Milenkovic
DC6.97
-Ola Aina
DR6.80
-Ibrahim Sangaré
DMC6.69
-Elliot Anderson
DMC6.84
-Callum Hudson-Odoi
AML7.07
-Morgan Gibbs-White
AMC6.58
-Omari Hutchinson
AMR6.90
-Igor Jesus
FW7.01

FC Porto

Starting 11
-Diogo Costa
GK6.58
-Zaidu Sanusi
DL6.47
-Jan Bednarek
DC6.74
-Thiago Silva
DC7.00
-Alberto Costa
DR6.57
-Gabri Veiga
MC6.85
-Pablo Rosario
MC6.64
-Seko Fofana
MC6.94
-Borja Sainz
FWL6.69
-Terem Moffi
FW6.80
-William Gomes
FWR6.62
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 13 / 11 matches
NottinghamvsFC Porto

radarTeam Profile

Nottingham
FC Porto
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
64Attack56
shield
65Defense53
swap_horiz
65Possession60
gps_fixed
65Efficiency69
auto_fix_high
47Creativity41
gavel
44Discipline50

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

22Goals Scored18
12Goals Conceded9
5Clean Sheets3
41Big Chances30
28Big Chances Missed18
4Penalty Goals2

gps_fixedShooting

212Total Shots161
83Shots on Target60

swap_horizPassing & Possession

52.7%Avg Possession52.9%
6,372Total Passes4,926
84.8%Pass Accuracy84.3%

shieldDefending

228Tackles160
116Interceptions96
26Saves25
50.8%Duels Won50.4%

gavelDiscipline

174Fouls123
22Yellow Cards25
1Red Cards0
19Offsides14

analyticsOther

74Corners60
105Successful Dribbles81
6.89Avg Rating6.84

Statistical Comparison

NottinghamMetricFC Porto
20
Goals
17
11
Assists
10
6.6
Average Ratings
6.6
26.2
Average Age
27.3
182.5
Average Height (cm)
183.5
1.1
Shots pg
1.1
51%
Aerial Duel Success
56%
0.7
Dribbles pg
0.6
1.1
Tackles pg
1

history Recent Form

NottinghamNottingham
1.0 GPG
D
W
D
D
L
FC PortoFC Porto
2.1 GPG
W
D
W
W
D

group Head to Head

PL9 Apr 2026
Porto
1-1
Nottingham Forest
PL23 Oct 2025
Nottingham Forest
2-0
Porto
0%
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
100%
2 / 2 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0 / 2 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
0%
0 / 2 matches
Both Teams to Score
50%
1 / 2 matches
Nottingham CS
50%
Clean Sheets
FC Porto CS
0%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

9 Apr 2026
Porto
1 - 1
Nottingham Forest
23 Oct 2025
Nottingham Forest
2 - 0
Porto

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Nottingham
1.00
Form (Overall)
FC Porto
2.10

FC Porto is +110% better in terms of Points Per Game

Nottingham Forest
1 - 1
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
0 - 3
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
0 - 0
Fulham
Manchester City
2 - 2
Nottingham Forest
Brighton & Hove Albion
2 - 1
Nottingham Forest
GD Estoril Praia
1 - 3
Porto
Porto
2 - 2
Famalicão
Sporting Braga
1 - 2
Porto
Porto
3 - 0
Moreirense FC
Benfica
2 - 2
Porto

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