Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Tips | Bundesliga | FootballTips.app
Paderborn
HomeFull Time
1:0
Saturday 24 October
Hamburger SV
Awayauto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Low Model Confidence
12.29
X3.81
22.90
Recommended Bet
No tip
No qualifying edge — see Value Comparison below
55
Best near-miss
Key Factors
League Rank: Home #16 vs Away #9
Season: Home 0.83 PPG vs Away 1.50 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.05 PPG vs Away 1.65 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.00 GPG vs Away 1.00 GPG
donut_small Win Probabilities
47%
24%
29%
Paderborn
Draw
Hamburger SV
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.62 | 1.92 | 1.68 | -15.6% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.39 | 2.09 | 2.48 | +14.5% |
| Paderborn Win | 2.23 | 2.11 | 2.46 | +5.5% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 4.18 | 4.08 | -11.5% |
| Hamburger SV Win | 2.60 | 3.47 | 2.87 | -25.1% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.53 | 1.78 | 1.61 | -14.1% |
| BTTS - No | 2.50 | 2.28 | 2.63 | +9.7% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Paderborn
Starting 11
-Nahuel Noll
GK6.96
-Mattes Hansen
DC6.67
-Tjark Scheller
DC7.09
-Jano ter Horst
DC6.93
-Raphael Obermair
DML6.77
-Gabriel Vidovic
MC6.52
-Santiago Castañeda
MC7.19
-Laurin Ulrich
MC6.57
-Laurin Curda
DMR7.16
-Steffen Tigges
FW6.73
-Stefano Marino
FW6.54
Hamburger SV
Starting 11
-Daniel Heuer Fernandes
GK6.32
-Nicolás Capaldo
DC6.66
-Sebastiaan Bornauw
DC6.78
-Warmed Omari
DC6.45
-David Møller Wolfe
DML6.36
-Miro Muheim
MC8.12
-Bilal Nadir
MC6.39
-Zakaria El Ouahdi
DMR6.28
-Albert Grønbæk
AMC6.55
-Fábio Vieira
AMC6.56
-Yussuf Poulsen
FW6.67
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
Match Preview
Paderborn scored twice within the opening half-hour of their game against Werder Bremen last time out, but a second-half Niklas Füllkrug brace levelled the scoreline. The newly-promoted side have won just one of their opening six league games, leaving them 16th in the standings.
Hamburg are chasing a fourth straight Bundesliga victory at the Home Deluxe Arena on Saturday afternoon. Merlin Polzin's side have responded well to a tough start to the season, beating FC Köln, Hoffenheim and Stuttgart in their most recent outings.
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 6 matchesPaderbornvsHamburger SV
0.83Goals / Match1.00
1.50Conceded / Match2.50
1Clean Sheets1
3.00Shots on Target / Match3.67
46.3%Possession %39.5%
80.7%Pass Accuracy %78.1%
radarTeam Profile
Paderborn
Hamburger SV
sports_soccer
27Attack27
shield
61Defense33
swap_horiz
46Possession29
gps_fixed
28Efficiency53
auto_fix_high
43Creativity39
gavel
67Discipline50
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
5Goals Scored6
9Goals Conceded15
1Clean Sheets1
11Big Chances12
9Big Chances Missed8
gps_fixedShooting
82Total Shots67
18Shots on Target22
swap_horizPassing & Possession
46.3%Avg Possession39.5%
2,672Total Passes2,076
80.7%Pass Accuracy78.1%
shieldDefending
116Tackles94
83Interceptions62
28Saves21
50.0%Duels Won46.2%
gavelDiscipline
63Fouls86
8Yellow Cards9
6Offsides9
analyticsOther
26Corners23
38Successful Dribbles31
0Errors Leading to Goal3
7.51Avg Rating6.80
Statistical Comparison
PaderbornMetricHamburger SV
5
Goals
6
3
Assists
4
6.5
Average Ratings
6.4
23.7
Average Age
26.8
185.5
Average Height (cm)
181.1
1
Shots pg
1
51%
Aerial Duel Success
42%
0.7
Dribbles pg
0.6
1.7
Tackles pg
1.3
history Recent Form
PaderbornL
W
L
L
W
Hamburger SVW
L
L
W
W
group Head to Head
PL2 Mar 2025
2-0
PL28 Sept 2024
2-2
PL10 May 2024
1-0
PL9 Dec 2023
1-2
PL5 May 2023
2-2
73%
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
87%
13 / 15 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
73%
11 / 15 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
40%
6 / 15 matches
Both Teams to Score
60%
9 / 15 matches
Paderborn CS
20%
Clean Sheets
Hamburger SV CS
20%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
2 Mar 2025
Paderborn
2 - 0
Hamburger SV
28 Sept 2024
Hamburger SV
2 - 2
Paderborn
10 May 2024
Paderborn
1 - 0
Hamburger SV
9 Dec 2023
Hamburger SV
1 - 2
Paderborn
5 May 2023
Hamburger SV
2 - 2
Paderborn
30 Oct 2022
Paderborn
2 - 3
Hamburger SV
2 Apr 2022
Hamburger SV
1 - 2
Paderborn
22 Oct 2021
Paderborn
1 - 2
Hamburger SV
30 Jan 2021
Hamburger SV
3 - 1
Paderborn
28 Sept 2020
Paderborn
3 - 4
Hamburger SV
12 May 2019
Paderborn
4 - 1
Hamburger SV
2 Apr 2019
Paderborn
0 - 2
Hamburger SV
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
1.00
Form (Overall)
1.00
Both teams have equal form.
Paderborn
0 - 2
Stuttgart
Paderborn
3 - 1
Hoffenheim
Paderborn
0 - 1
Freiburg
Paderborn
0 - 2
Magdeburg
Paderborn
2 - 1
Wolfsburg
Hoffenheim
2 - 3
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
5 - 0
Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
2 - 0
Hamburger SV
Verl
0 - 3
Hamburger SV
Toulouse
1 - 2
Hamburger SV
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