Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Tips | LaLiga | FootballTips.app
Real Madrid
HomeFull Time
4 - 1
HT: 3 - 0
Saturday 12 September
Rayo Vallecano
Awayauto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Low Confidence
11.12
X9.86
220.60
Recommended Bet
check_circle
Both Teams to Score
Odds: 1.95Stake: Medium (8/10)
75
Opp. Value
Key Factors
League Rank: Home #4 vs Away #15
Season: Home 2.50 PPG vs Away 1.30 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 2.00 PPG vs Away 1.22 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 3.20 GPG vs Away 1.29 GPG
donut_small Win Probabilities
66%
19%
15%
Real Madrid
Draw
Rayo Vallecano
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.28 | 1.72 | 1.37 | -25.6% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 3.50 | 2.39 | 3.73 | +46.6% |
| Real Madrid Win | 1.10 | 1.51 | 1.16 | -27.3% |
| Draw | 10.00 | 5.33 | 10.51 | +87.5% |
| Rayo Vallecano Win | 24.00 | 6.61 | 25.22 | +263.1% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.95 | 1.76 | 2.10 | +10.8% |
| BTTS - No | 1.78 | 2.31 | 1.91 | -23.1% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Match Preview
It was a strong start to the season for Real Madrid, winning their opening three matches. Last time out, they suffered their first defeat of the campaign, losing 1-0 to Real Betis.
Rayo Vallecano suffered a difficult start, failing to win any of their opening three matches. They bounced back last time out, beating Racing Santander 3-2.
The last time these two sides met was back in February, with Real Madrid winning 2-0. Rayo's last victory over Madrid came back in 2022.
Lineups
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Real Madrid
Starting 11
-Thibaut Courtois
GK6.62
-Álvaro Carreras
DL6.34
-Antonio Rüdiger
DC7.19
-Dean Huijsen
DC7.10
-Trent Alexander-Arnold
DR7.02
-Bernardo Silva
DMC6.42
-Eduardo Camavinga
DMC6.53
-Vinícius Júnior
AML7.50
-Jude Bellingham
AMC8.25
-Arda Güler
AMR7.78
-Kylian Mbappé
FW8.15
Rayo Vallecano
Starting 11
-Emil Audero
GK
-Adrià Pedrosa
DL6.55
-Pathé Ciss
DC6.50
-Florian Lejeune
DC6.60
-Andrei Ratiu
DR6.61
-Gnangoro
DMC6.23
-Óscar Valentín
DMC6.42
-Álvaro García
AML6.65
-Unai López
AMC7.23
-Pedro Díaz
AMR6.41
-Sergio Camello
FW7.44
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 38 matchesReal MadridvsRayo Vallecano
2.03Goals / Match1.08
0.92Conceded / Match1.16
14Clean Sheets12
6.66Shots on Target / Match4.84
59.4%Possession %53.4%
89.7%Pass Accuracy %82.2%
radarTeam Profile
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
sports_soccer
78Attack42
shield
55Defense59
swap_horiz
87Possession57
gps_fixed
71Efficiency50
auto_fix_high
68Creativity39
gavel
46Discipline17
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
77Goals Scored41
35Goals Conceded44
14Clean Sheets12
118Big Chances101
73Big Chances Missed68
12Penalty Goals3
gps_fixedShooting
665Total Shots531
253Shots on Target184
swap_horizPassing & Possession
59.4%Avg Possession53.4%
22,307Total Passes15,858
89.7%Pass Accuracy82.2%
shieldDefending
591Tackles685
252Interceptions315
86Saves112
54.7%Duels Won48.6%
gavelDiscipline
380Fouls511
69Yellow Cards100
7Red Cards9
78Offsides79
analyticsOther
239Corners216
391Successful Dribbles284
5Errors Leading to Goal2
7.03Avg Rating6.79
Statistical Comparison
Real MadridMetricRayo Vallecano
9
Goals
7
7
Assists
6
6.9
Average Ratings
6.4
26.4
Average Age
29.3
183.4
Average Height (cm)
179.2
1.8
Shots pg
0.9
64%
Aerial Duel Success
47%
1.6
Dribbles pg
0.9
1
Tackles pg
1.4
history Recent Form
Real MadridL
W
W
W
Rayo VallecanoW
L
D
L
group Head to Head
PL1 Feb 2026
2-1
PL9 Nov 2025
0-0
PL9 Mar 2025
2-1
PL14 Dec 2024
3-3
PL18 Feb 2024
1-1
55%
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
16 / 22 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
12 / 22 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
36%
8 / 22 matches
Both Teams to Score
55%
12 / 22 matches
Real Madrid CS
41%
Clean Sheets
Rayo Vallecano CS
14%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
1 Feb 2026
Real Madrid
2 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
9 Nov 2025
Rayo Vallecano
0 - 0
Real Madrid
9 Mar 2025
Real Madrid
2 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
14 Dec 2024
Rayo Vallecano
3 - 3
Real Madrid
18 Feb 2024
Rayo Vallecano
1 - 1
Real Madrid
5 Nov 2023
Real Madrid
0 - 0
Rayo Vallecano
24 May 2023
Real Madrid
2 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
7 Nov 2022
Rayo Vallecano
3 - 2
Real Madrid
26 Feb 2022
Rayo Vallecano
0 - 1
Real Madrid
6 Nov 2021
Real Madrid
2 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
28 Apr 2019
Rayo Vallecano
1 - 0
Real Madrid
15 Dec 2018
Real Madrid
1 - 0
Rayo Vallecano
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
2.50
Form (Overall)
1.30
Real Madrid is +92% better in terms of Points Per Game
Real Betis
1 - 0
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
4 - 0
Málaga CF
Real Madrid
4 - 1
Real Sociedad
RCD Espanyol
1 - 2
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
3 - 2
Racing Santander
FC Barcelona
5 - 2
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
1 - 1
Deportivo Alavés
Sevilla FC
2 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
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