Stevenage vs Luton Prediction & Tips | League One | FootballTips.app
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AI Prediction
verified Low Confidence
13.06
X3.22
22.23
Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.91Stake: Medium (7/10)
68
Opp. Value
Key Factors
League Rank: Home #16 vs Away #7
Season: Home 0.90 PPG vs Away 2.00 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.45 PPG vs Away 1.50 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 0.60 GPG vs Away 2.33 GPG
donut_small Win Probabilities
35%
27%
39%
Stevenage
Draw
Luton
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.91 | 1.80 | 2.06 | +6.2% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.81 | 2.25 | 1.95 | -19.6% |
| Stevenage Win | 3.04 | 2.87 | 3.31 | +5.8% |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.76 | 3.68 | -10.1% |
| Luton Town Win | 2.15 | 2.59 | 2.34 | -17.0% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.67 | 1.79 | 1.85 | -6.5% |
| BTTS - No | 1.97 | 2.27 | 2.18 | -13.3% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
Match Preview
Stevenage produced the perfect response to a frustrating run of form last weekend as Dan Kemp's brace set up a dominant 5-1 away win against Barnsley. That result ended a five-game winless streak across all competitions.
Luton were ahead for just nine minutes in gameweek five as Jamie Donley's opener was cancelled out by Jaze Kabia to send Leyton Orient away from Kenilworth Road with a point. The Hatters are unbeaten in back-to-back League One matches ahead of Thursday night's contest.
Lineups
Lineup Predictions & Ratings
Stevenage
Starting 11
-Tommy Setford
GK6.57
-Lewis Freestone
DL7.12
-Carl Piergianni
DC7.20
-Terence Vancooten
DC7.15
-Luther James-Wildin
DR6.74
-Jordan Roberts
ML6.60
-Daniel Phillips
MC6.86
-Terry Taylor
MC6.19
-Oliver Sanderson
MR6.91
-Dan Kemp
AMC6.88
-Josh Magennis
FW6.90
Luton
Starting 11
-Josh Keeley
GK6.07
-George Johnston
DC6.89
-Mads Andersen
DC6.98
-Hakeem Odoffin
DC7.18
-Isaiah Jones
DML6.48
-Jake Richards
MC6.70
-Liam Walsh
MC6.49
-Harry Fox
DMR6.30
-Kasey Palmer
AMC6.50
-Jamie Donley
AMC6.78
-Nahki Wells
FW7.06
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 5 matchesStevenagevsLuton
1.80Goals / Match2.20
1.20Conceded / Match2.20
1Clean Sheets1
4.00Shots on Target / Match5.20
44.8%Possession %53.2%
66.5%Pass Accuracy %80.5%
radarTeam Profile
Stevenage
Luton
sports_soccer
41Attack67
shield
48Defense29
swap_horiz
18Possession52
gps_fixed
95Efficiency82
auto_fix_high
41Creativity56
gavel
62Discipline49
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
9Goals Scored11
6Goals Conceded11
1Clean Sheets1
9Big Chances14
4Big Chances Missed9
0Penalty Goals2
gps_fixedShooting
48Total Shots69
20Shots on Target26
swap_horizPassing & Possession
44.8%Avg Possession53.2%
1,637Total Passes2,200
66.5%Pass Accuracy80.5%
shieldDefending
94Tackles74
40Interceptions43
8Saves8
57.2%Duels Won50.2%
gavelDiscipline
66Fouls55
5Yellow Cards12
11Offsides9
analyticsOther
21Corners26
22Successful Dribbles33
0Errors Leading to Goal3
7.42Avg Rating6.96
Statistical Comparison
StevenageMetricLuton
9
Goals
11
6
Assists
6
6.6
Average Ratings
6.5
27.5
Average Age
25.9
182
Average Height (cm)
181.4
0.9
Shots pg
1.1
58%
Aerial Duel Success
46%
0.5
Dribbles pg
0.7
1.8
Tackles pg
1
history Recent Form
StevenageW
D
D
L
D
LutonD
W
L
D
W
group Head to Head
PL10 Jan 2026
2-1
PL4 Oct 2025
2-0
PL10 Aug 2021
2-2
PL10 Feb 2018
1-1
PL14 Oct 2017
7-1
44%
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
78%
7 / 9 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
4 / 9 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
22%
2 / 9 matches
Both Teams to Score
56%
5 / 9 matches
Stevenage CS
44%
Clean Sheets
Luton CS
11%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
10 Jan 2026
Luton Town
2 - 1
Stevenage
4 Oct 2025
Stevenage
2 - 0
Luton Town
10 Aug 2021
Stevenage
2 - 2
Luton Town
10 Feb 2018
Stevenage
1 - 1
Luton Town
14 Oct 2017
Luton Town
7 - 1
Stevenage
11 Mar 2017
Luton Town
0 - 2
Stevenage
20 Aug 2016
Stevenage
2 - 1
Luton Town
2 Apr 2016
Luton Town
0 - 1
Stevenage
21 Nov 2015
Stevenage
0 - 0
Luton Town
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
0.90
Form (Overall)
2.00
Luton is +122% better in terms of Points Per Game
Barnsley
1 - 5
Stevenage
Peterborough United
0 - 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
2 - 2
Doncaster Rovers
Stevenage
1 - 2
Oxford United
Burton Albion
1 - 1
Stevenage
Luton Town
1 - 1
Leyton Orient
Luton Town
2 - 0
Stockport County
Mansfield Town
5 - 2
Luton Town
Luton Town
2 - 2
Notts County
Reading
3 - 4
Luton Town
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