Swindon vs Newport Prediction & Tips | EFL Trophy | FootballTips.app
Swindon
HomeFull Time
0 - 2
HT: 0 - 1
Tuesday 22 September
Newport
Awayauto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified High Model Confidence
11.98
X3.36
23.23
Recommended Bet
No tip
No qualifying edge — see Value Comparison below
51
Best near-miss
Key Factors
Season: Home 1.00 PPG vs Away 1.00 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.05 PPG vs Away 0.65 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 2.25 GPG vs Away 1.17 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 1.25 conc vs Away 1.67 conc
donut_small Win Probabilities
43%
25%
32%
Swindon
Draw
Newport
payments
Value Comparison
| Outcome | Market Odds | True Odds (AI) | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.77 | 1.90 | 1.89 | -6.6% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 2.12 | 2.13 | -5.5% |
| Swindon Town Win | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.26 | -13.0% |
| Draw | 3.38 | 4.00 | 3.82 | -15.6% |
| Newport County Win | 3.00 | 3.17 | 3.39 | -5.4% |
| BTTS - Yes | 1.66 | 1.84 | 1.79 | -10.0% |
| BTTS - No | 2.10 | 2.18 | 2.27 | -3.9% |
Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.
compareTeam Comparison
Based on 7 matchesSwindonvsNewport
1.14Goals / Match1.43
1.57Conceded / Match1.57
1Clean Sheets2
3.00Shots on Target / Match3.29
43.6%Possession %39.0%
67.9%Pass Accuracy %58.0%
radarTeam Profile
Swindon
Newport
sports_soccer
18Attack30
shield
56Defense51
swap_horiz
17Possession12
gps_fixed
80Efficiency85
auto_fix_high
17Creativity36
gavel
45Discipline55
sports_soccerGoals & Scoring
8Goals Scored10
11Goals Conceded11
1Clean Sheets2
11Big Chances11
6Big Chances Missed5
gps_fixedShooting
58Total Shots67
21Shots on Target23
swap_horizPassing & Possession
43.6%Avg Possession39.0%
2,261Total Passes1,738
67.9%Pass Accuracy58.0%
shieldDefending
162Tackles128
75Interceptions55
30Saves21
51.2%Duels Won51.1%
gavelDiscipline
69Fouls85
15Yellow Cards12
1Red Cards0
16Offsides16
analyticsOther
27Corners28
31Successful Dribbles31
2Errors Leading to Goal2
7.20Avg Rating6.99
history Recent Form
SwindonL
L
W
W
L
NewportD
D
L
L
D
group Head to Head
PL11 Feb 2026
2-0
PL4 Oct 2025
0-1
PL24 Jan 2025
1-2
PL14 Sept 2024
4-0
PL3 Feb 2024
2-1
42%
Over 2.5 Goals
37%
Both Team Score
Head-to-Head Detailed
Over 1.5 Goals
63%
12 / 19 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
8 / 19 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
5%
1 / 19 matches
Both Teams to Score
37%
7 / 19 matches
Swindon CS
42%
Clean Sheets
Newport CS
26%
Clean Sheets
Recent Matches
11 Feb 2026
Swindon Town
2 - 0
Newport County
4 Oct 2025
Newport County
0 - 1
Swindon Town
24 Jan 2025
Newport County
1 - 2
Swindon Town
14 Sept 2024
Swindon Town
4 - 0
Newport County
3 Feb 2024
Newport County
2 - 1
Swindon Town
14 Oct 2023
Swindon Town
2 - 0
Newport County
4 Feb 2023
Newport County
2 - 1
Swindon Town
4 Oct 2022
Swindon Town
1 - 0
Newport County
9 Apr 2022
Swindon Town
0 - 1
Newport County
20 Nov 2021
Newport County
1 - 2
Swindon Town
9 Nov 2021
Swindon Town
1 - 0
Newport County
18 Jan 2020
Newport County
2 - 0
Swindon Town
Current Form Comparison
Form (Overall)
1.00
Form (Overall)
1.00
Both teams have equal form.
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3 - 0
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1 - 1
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1 - 0
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2 - 1
Newport County
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2 - 2
Tranmere Rovers
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