Turkey vs Italy Prediction & Tips | UEFA Nations League - League A | FootballTips.app

Turkey

Turkey

Home
Full Time
1 - 4
HT: 0 - 3
Monday 28 September
Italy

Italy

Away
TurkeyTimelineItaly
1st Half
Bastoni A.
sports_soccer
9'
Frattesi D. ()
sports_soccer
22'
Kayode M. (Esposito F.)
sports_soccer
27'
Uzun C.
38'
2nd Half
Cambiaghi N.Out: Raspadori G.
sync_alt
46'
Bardakci A.Out: Demiral M.
sync_alt
46'
Akturkoglu K.Out: Uzun C.
sync_alt
46'
Yuksek I.Out: Kokcu O.
sync_alt
46'
Yilmaz B. (Aydin O.)
sports_soccer
47'
Esposito F.
sports_soccer
50'
Yilmaz B.
54'
Doumbia I.Out: Esposito Se.
sync_alt
63'
Kabak O.
72'
Scamacca G.Out: Esposito F.
sync_alt
75'
Romano A.Out: Fagioli N.
sync_alt
76'
Tiknaz D. E.Out: Ozcan S.
sync_alt
76'
Gul D.Out: Yilmaz B.
sync_alt
80'
Di Lorenzo G.Out: Frattesi D.
sync_alt
83'
No statistics available for this match
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Model Confidence
12.59
X3.44
22.57

Recommended Bet

No tip
No qualifying edge — see Value Comparison below
62
Best near-miss

Key Factors

Season: Home 1.90 PPG vs Away 2.20 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 1.05 PPG vs Away 1.80 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.67 GPG vs Away 2.17 GPG
Defense (venue): Home 0.67 conc vs Away 1.00 conc

donut_small Win Probabilities

32%
24%
44%
Turkey
Draw
Italy
payments

Value Comparison

OutcomeMarket OddsTrue Odds (AI)Value
Over 2.5 Goals1.751.88-6.9%
Under 2.5 Goals2.082.14-2.7%
Turkey Win2.453.11-21.2%
Draw3.504.16-15.8%
Italy Win2.352.28+2.9%
BTTS - Yes1.591.85-14.1%
BTTS - No2.252.17+3.5%

Fair Odds remove the bookmaker margin. Value is raw EV vs market odds; hover a badge for the edge vs fair odds.

Match Preview

Türkiye couldn't respond after falling behind to a 54th-minute Kylian Mbappe goal on Friday night, suffering a narrow 1-0 home defeat in their Nations League opener. Monday's hosts have now lost three of their last four international fixtures, failing to score on each occasion.

Italy travel to Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu looking to shake off a humbling 2-0 home defeat against Belgium in their Nations League opener on Friday. The Azzurri had recorded back-to-back wins before their struggles at the Stadio Olimpico.

Lineups

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Turkey

Starting 11
-Altay Bayindir
GK6.12
-Merih Demiral
DC6.65
-Abdülkerim Bardakci
DC6.43
-Zeki Çelik
DC6.78
-Ferdi Kadioglu
DML6.46
-Ismail Yüksek
MC6.40
-Salih Özcan
MC6.35
-Eren Elmali
DMR6.25
-Arda Güler
AMC7.43
-Can Uzun
AMC5.13
-Baris Alper Yilmaz
FW5.91

Italy

Starting 11
-Gianluigi Donnarumma
GK7.19
-Riccardo Calafiori
DL6.32
-Diego Coppola
DC6.70
-Gianluca Mancini
DC6.21
-Giovanni Di Lorenzo
DR6.22
-Sandro Tonali
MC5.91
-Davide Frattesi
MC6.38
-Nicolò Barella
MC6.75
-Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWL7.25
-Francesco Pio Esposito
FW6.23
-Moise Kean
FWR6.41
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 7 / 8 matches
TurkeyvsItaly
1.29Goals / Match3.13
1.14Conceded / Match0.63
2Clean Sheets4

radarTeam Profile

Turkey
Italy
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
15Attack38
shield
31Defense53
swap_horiz
24Possession24
gps_fixed
50Efficiency50
auto_fix_high
0Creativity0
gavel
81Discipline81

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

9Goals Scored25
8Goals Conceded5
2Clean Sheets4
0Penalty Goals5

Statistical Comparison

TurkeyMetricItaly
0
Goals
0
0
Assists
0
6.2
Average Ratings
6.4
26.5
Average Age
26.4
183.7
Average Height (cm)
184.5
1.5
Shots pg
1.9
45%
Aerial Duel Success
64%
2
Dribbles pg
1.7
1.9
Tackles pg
1.6

history Recent Form

TurkeyTurkey
1.9 GPG
L
W
L
L
W
ItalyItaly
2.2 GPG
L
W
W
D
W

group Head to Head

PL4 Jun 2024
Italy
0-0
Turkey
PL29 Mar 2022
Turkey
2-3
Italy
PL11 Jun 2021
Turkey
0-3
Italy
67%
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
67%
2 / 3 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
2 / 3 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
1 / 3 matches
Both Teams to Score
33%
1 / 3 matches
Turkey CS
33%
Clean Sheets
Italy CS
67%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

4 Jun 2024
Italy
0 - 0
Turkey
29 Mar 2022
Turkey
2 - 3
Italy
11 Jun 2021
Turkey
0 - 3
Italy

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Turkey
1.90
Form (Overall)
Italy
2.20

Italy is +16% better in terms of Points Per Game

Turkey
0 - 1
France
Turkey
3 - 2
USMNT
Turkey
0 - 1
Paraguay
Australia
2 - 0
Turkey
Venezuela
1 - 2
Turkey
Italy
0 - 2
Belgium
Greece
0 - 1
Italy
Luxembourg
0 - 1
Italy
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 - 1
Italy
Italy
2 - 0
Northern Ireland

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