Watford vs Derby Prediction & Tips | Championship | FootballTips.app

Watford

Watford

Home
Full Time
2 - 0
HT: 1 - 0
Saturday 21 February
Derby

Derby

Away
WatfordTimelineDerby
1st Half
Kjerrumgaard L. ()
sports_soccer
5'
Clarke M.
23'
Chakvetadze G.Out: Maamma O.
sync_alt
23'
2nd Half
Chakvetadze G.
52'
Elder C.
55'
Clark B.Out: Ozoh D.
sync_alt
62'
Morris C.Out: Brewster R.
sync_alt
62'
Murkin D.Out: Elder C.
sync_alt
62'
Baah K.Out: Irankunda N.
sync_alt
68'
Doumbia M.Out: Kjerrumgaard L.
sync_alt
68'
Fraulo O.Out: Brereton Diaz B.
sync_alt
78'
Doumbia M.
83'
Bola M.Out: Baah K.
sync_alt
85'
Pollock M.Out: Goglichidze S.
sync_alt
86'
Doumbia M. (Bola M.)
sports_soccer
90'
Allen C.Out: Travis L.
sync_alt
90+2'

Top stats

1.30Expected goals (xG)0.54
45%Ball possession55%
18Total shots5
8Shots on target1
2Big chances1
2Corner kicks2
77% (278/359)Passes83% (354/424)
2Yellow cards2

Shots

1.30Expected goals (xG)0.54
1.60xG on target (xGOT)0.17
18Total shots5
8Shots on target1
5Shots off target3
5Blocked shots1
8Shots inside the box3
10Shots outside the box2
0Hit the woodwork0

Attack

2Big chances1
2Corner kicks2
24Touches in opposition box16
0Accurate through passes0
1Offsides0
11Free kicks13

Passes

77% (278/359)Passes83% (354/424)
29% (16/55)Long passes52% (27/52)
62% (69/111)Passes in final third62% (72/116)
0% (0/8)Crosses26% (5/19)
1.07Expected assists (xA)0.60
18Throw ins34

Defense

13Fouls11
73% (16/22)Tackles60% (6/10)
62Duels won44
35Clearances35
10Interceptions7
0Errors leading to shot1
0Errors leading to goal0

Goalkeeping

1Goalkeeper saves6
0.17xGOT faced1.60
0.17Goals prevented-0.40
auto_awesome
AI Prediction
verified Very High Confidence
12.17
X3.25
23.61

Recommended Bet

cancel
Away Win
Stake: High (9/10)
88
Opp. Value

Key Factors

League Rank: Home #12 vs Away #6
Season: Home 1.41 PPG vs Away 1.50 PPG
Recent Form (weighted): Home 0.60 PPG vs Away 1.95 PPG
Goals (venue): Home 1.50 GPG vs Away 1.73 GPG

donut_small Win Probabilities

30%
24%
46%
Watford
Draw
Derby

Lineup Predictions & Ratings

Watford

Starting 11
-Egil Selvik
GK6.65
-Marc Bola
DL6.81
-Mattie Pollock
DC6.92
-Stephen Mfuni
DC6.65
-James Abankwah
DR6.72
-Nampalys Mendy
DMC6.32
-Imrân Louza
DMC7.24
-Othmane Maamma
AML6.96
-Giorgi Chakvetadze
AMC6.39
-Kwadwo Baah
AMR6.21
-Luca Kjerrumgaard
FW6.65

Derby

Starting 11
-Josh Vickers
GK7.15
-Callum Elder
DL7.07
-Matt Clarke
DC7.03
-Dion Sanderson
DC6.71
-Joe Ward
DR6.98
-David Ozoh
DMC6.52
-Bobby Clark
DMC6.53
-Rhian Brewster
AML6.58
-Sam Szmodics
AMC6.61
-Ben Brereton
AMR6.57
-Patrick Agyemang
FW6.85
Ratings based on player performance in recent matches

Match Preview

At Vicarage Road, Watford will host Derby County in a Championship clash on February 21, 2026.

Positioned 12th in the standings with 45 points, Watford will face 6th-placed Derby County, who have secured 48 points.

Watford has been involved in 4 draws in their recent 6 matches, while Derby County has enjoyed a 67% win rate in their last 6 away games.

In their head-to-head history, Watford has emerged victorious in 5 out of the last 6 encounters against Derby County.

The prediction for this game is Derby County to secure a 2-1 victory.

Watford scored twice in the space of three second-half minutes at Deepdale last time out as Edward Still capped his first game in charge of the Hornets with a point on the road against Preston. Saturday's hosts are winless in seven as they welcome John Eustace's men to Vicarage Road.

Derby weathered the Swansea storm during the first half last weekend before second-half goals from Rhian Brewster and Patrick Agyemang sealed a critical 2-0 home win. The Rams have won four of their last six league games and head into gameweek 33 inside the play-off spots.

compareTeam Comparison

Based on 32 matches
WatfordvsDerby
1.28Goals / Match1.47
1.19Conceded / Match1.22
5Clean Sheets8
4.47Shots on Target / Match3.34
51.6%Possession %42.3%
80.6%Pass Accuracy %74.5%

radarTeam Profile

Watford
Derby
AttackDefensePossessionEfficiencyCreativityDiscipline
sports_soccer
41Attack34
shield
41Defense49
swap_horiz
55Possession26
gps_fixed
53Efficiency79
auto_fix_high
37Creativity29
gavel
51Discipline38

sports_soccerGoals & Scoring

41Goals Scored47
38Goals Conceded39
5Clean Sheets8
67Big Chances60
45Big Chances Missed32
2Penalty Goals4

gps_fixedShooting

446Total Shots322
143Shots on Target107

swap_horizPassing & Possession

51.6%Avg Possession42.3%
13,526Total Passes10,514
80.6%Pass Accuracy74.5%

shieldDefending

465Tackles480
274Interceptions277
78Saves94
50.2%Duels Won48.6%

gavelDiscipline

330Fouls394
62Yellow Cards74
3Red Cards3
33Offsides49

analyticsOther

157Corners154
262Successful Dribbles170
3Errors Leading to Goal1
6.80Avg Rating6.77

Statistical Comparison

WatfordMetricDerby
40
Goals
44
26
Assists
30
6.5
Average Ratings
6.5
24.6
Average Age
26.6
182.4
Average Height (cm)
182.5
0.9
Shots pg
0.7
52%
Aerial Duel Success
51%
0.6
Dribbles pg
0.6
1.1
Tackles pg
1.1

League Standings Context

For Watford

PosTeamPWDLPts
11Birmingham City3212101046
12Watford321112945
13QPR321281244

For Derby

PosTeamPWDLPts
5Hull City31166954
6Derby County321391048
7Wrexham FC321212848

Advanced Stats (Avg per match)

40.6/ 87.9
Dangerous Attacks
40.5/ 87.1
32.0%
Shots on Target
33.0%
13.7
Total Shots
9.7
51.0%
Possession
42.0%

Team Performance (Avg)

1.3
Goals Scored / Match
1.4
1.3
Goals Conceded / Match
1.3

Head-to-Head Summary

5
Watford Wins
83%
1
Draws
17%
0
Derby Wins
0%
Total H2H Matches: 6

Recent Form Stats

MarketWatfordDerby
Over 1.5 Goals
76%26/34
82%28/34
Over 2.5 Goals
50%17/34
53%18/34
Both Teams to Score
65%22/34
74%25/34
* Based on last 34 matches

Past Matches

Last 6: Watford

CH
Watford
0 - 2
Swansea City
CH
Watford
1 - 1
Portsmouth
CH
Watford
0 - 2
Millwall
CH
Watford
3 - 0
Birmingham City
CH
Watford
1 - 0
Stoke City
CH
Watford
1 - 1
Sheffield Wednesday

Home Games: Watford

CH
Watford
0 - 2
Swansea City
CH
Watford
1 - 1
Portsmouth
CH
Watford
0 - 2
Millwall
CH
Watford
3 - 0
Birmingham City
CH
Watford
1 - 0
Stoke City
CH
Watford
1 - 1
Sheffield Wednesday

Last 6: Derby

CH
Bristol City
0 - 5
Derby County
CH
Charlton Athletic
1 - 2
Derby County
CH
Preston North End
0 - 1
Derby County
CH
Leicester City
2 - 1
Derby County
CH
Birmingham City
1 - 1
Derby County
CH
Sheffield Wednesday
0 - 3
Derby County

Away Games: Derby

CH
Bristol City
0 - 5
Derby County
CH
Charlton Athletic
1 - 2
Derby County
CH
Preston North End
0 - 1
Derby County
CH
Leicester City
2 - 1
Derby County
CH
Birmingham City
1 - 1
Derby County
CH
Sheffield Wednesday
0 - 3
Derby County

history Recent Form

WatfordWatford
1.4 GPG
D
L
D
L
D
DerbyDerby
1.5 GPG
W
L
W
D
W

group Head to Head

PL22 Nov 2025
Derby County
2-3
Watford
PL18 Jan 2025
Derby County
0-2
Watford
PL24 Aug 2024
Watford
2-1
Derby County
PL19 Feb 2021
Watford
2-1
Derby County
PL16 Oct 2020
Derby County
0-1
Watford
68%
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
Both Team Score

Head-to-Head Detailed

Over 1.5 Goals
79%
15 / 19 matches
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
13 / 19 matches
Over 3.5 Goals
37%
7 / 19 matches
Both Teams to Score
63%
12 / 19 matches
Watford CS
16%
Clean Sheets
Derby CS
21%
Clean Sheets

Recent Matches

22 Nov 2025
Derby County
2 - 3
Watford
18 Jan 2025
Derby County
0 - 2
Watford
24 Aug 2024
Watford
2 - 1
Derby County
19 Feb 2021
Watford
2 - 1
Derby County
16 Oct 2020
Derby County
0 - 1
Watford
3 Apr 2015
Derby County
2 - 2
Watford
22 Nov 2014
Watford
1 - 2
Derby County
26 Apr 2014
Derby County
4 - 2
Watford
19 Oct 2013
Watford
2 - 3
Derby County
23 Feb 2013
Watford
2 - 1
Derby County
1 Sept 2012
Derby County
5 - 1
Watford
10 Mar 2012
Derby County
1 - 2
Watford

Current Form Comparison

Form (Overall)
Watford
1.41
Form (Overall)
Derby
1.50

Derby is +6% better in terms of Points Per Game

Preston North End
2 - 2
Watford
Southampton
1 - 0
Watford
Hull City
0 - 0
Watford
Watford
0 - 2
Swansea City
Blackburn Rovers
1 - 1
Watford
Derby County
2 - 0
Swansea City
Derby County
1 - 2
Ipswich Town
Bristol City
0 - 5
Derby County
Derby County
1 - 1
West Bromwich Albion
Charlton Athletic
1 - 2
Derby County

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